Queensland's southern regions may experience severe storms through the long weekend while the north sees improved boating conditions as winds ease on the King's Birthday public holiday, according to Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Felim Hanniffy, who noted October marks the start of the higher risk weather season.
AI-generated summary
October marks the start of the higher risk weather season in Queensland, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.
Queensland's southern flank may be hit by severe storms through the long weekend as the north of the state is peppered by coastal showers.
The King's Birthday public holiday on Monday, which marks the last day of Queensland school holidays, will bring a drop off in winds, leading to better boating conditions in the tropics and some reprieve for areas with a higher fire danger.
Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Felim Hanniffy said the weekend watch-point for Queensland would be storms beginning today.
"October historically is the start of the higher risk weather season," he explained.
"[There] will be the chance of some thunderstorm activity in the far south-west and southern interior, more particularly near the New South Wales border as we go into Saturday.
"As we head into the early part of next week there will be the potential for increased shower and thunderstorm activity around the south-east.
Mr Hanniffy said a trough moving eastward across southern Queensland and another system in central Queensland was driving the storm activity.
"That is going to increase instability as well, and we are looking at a number of days of showers and storms in the south-east," he said.
"[We] could not rule out that some of that activity could be severe during this period as well."
Breeze to ease
Persistent and fresh south-easterlies will drop off along the North Tropical Coast on the public holiday, improving boating conditions.
"We have seen over the seven days to Friday morning, particularly on the Cassowary Coast, daily showers," Mr Hanniffy said.
"That was driven by a firm ridge along the east coast and those brisk south-easterlies in play.
"At the weekend that high pressure system that was driving in those showers and brisk winds does weaken.
"By Monday the wind should be a lot lighter about the North Tropical Coast; so certainly better weather for boaties to come."
Winds are also expected to ease within Queensland's interior, which could temporarily reduce the fire danger.
Parts of northern and central Queensland were subject to fire bans earlier this week.
Mr Hannify said areas outside of the storm-affected regions would be dry, but coastal regions could be "peppered" by showers.
Cool north, warm south
Pushing further into spring, Queensland temperatures are trending warmer than average in the south and cooler than average in the north.
Average temperatures are expected to return after the long weekend.
"Across parts of the southern interiors and inland south-east [temperatures will be] ranging 2 to 5 degrees above average," Mr Hanniffy said.
"Most other areas, particularly in the north, we're looking at temperatures being on the cooler side for this time of year.
"Particularly across those areas of the north-east where we have got a little bit of cloud and the chance of those showers around."
Across Queensland, fresh conditions are expected in the early mornings as overnight minimum temperatures remain below average.
"If you're out and about in the early mornings, you'll still feel a mostly fresher side to the weather in the south-east," he said.
"We do see the temperatures recover for most areas as we head into next week."
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Severe storm activity possible in southern Queensland through the long weekend
Possible · Within days
Improved boating conditions on North Tropical Coast by Monday due to easing winds
Likely · Within days
Temperatures in southern interior and inland south-east to range 2 to 5 degrees above average
Likely · Within days
A weather system brought significant rainfall to Western Australia after a dry winter, with Goldfields recording four times normal September rainfall. While some crops benefited, others like oats were lodged, and farmers reported damage, and northern farmers received insufficient rain, highlighting uneven distribution.

Australians in the nation's south-east are expected to experience the warmest September day in years, with temperatures rising 6C to 12C above average over the weekend. Coastal areas will reach the high 20s while inland regions extend into the low to mid 30s due to a cold front in Western Australia and a high-pressure system in the Tasman Sea dragging warm, dry, sunny weather. Canberra and Melbourne are forecast to record their highest September temperatures since 2023, with Sydney reaching 28C and Hobart its hottest September day in seven years. Bureau of Meteorology senior meteorologist Dean Narramore warned of further fluctuations, including cooler conditions early next week followed by an even bigger heat burst later in the week. He noted these spring temperature swings are common, citing Hobart's forecast of 27C on Sunday dropping to 14C on Monday as an example of the 'spring rollercoaster'. The upcoming warm weather is expected to be hotter and more prolonged than this weekend, with most of south-eastern Australia running 8C to 15C above September averages from Thursday onward. The BoM's spring outlook is warm and dry, with a strong El Niño developing in the Pacific forecast to peak in late spring or summer and reach levels above the warmest observed since 1950. El Niño increases the chances of warmer, drier weather and fire danger in summer, particularly in Queensland and New South Wales, raising risks of heatwaves, drought and bushfires. Globally, 2027 is expected to be the hottest year ever due to El Niño. Fire danger is currently high in some parts of the country but not extreme.
Following a polar blast that brought freezing temperatures and snow to south-east Australia, a rapid warming surge driven by hot air from Western Australia's 'heat engine' is set to push temperatures up to 12C above average this weekend, with multiple capitals forecast to record their warmest September days in years before another cold front flushes the heat away within 24 hours.
Queensland experienced above-average temperatures and sunny skies over the weekend, but emergency services continue battling fires, including a deliberately lit blaze near Gladstone. Meteorologists warn of possible smoke impacts from high-pressure ridging and heavy morning fog, while the Rural Fire Service cites high-risk conditions due to warm temperatures and strong winds. Showers are expected along the east coast from Tuesday, increasing to up to 20mm on the north Tropical Coast by Thursday to Saturday.

Record early September heat is forecast for Sydney and Brisbane, with temperatures up to 13C above average, while snow is expected in southern NSW and fire dangers spike due to warm, dry, windy conditions. The Bureau of Meteorology warns of damaging winds, flooding in Victoria and Tasmania, and a strengthening El Niño likely to persist until early 2027, increasing bushfire risks nationwide.
A powerful weather front is bringing record-breaking early September heat to Brisbane and Sydney, damaging winds and thunderstorms across New South Wales, South Australia and Victoria, flooding rains in northern Victoria and Tasmania, and snowfall in the Australian Alps, with extreme fire danger declared for Greater Sydney.