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BackThe U.S. non-farm payroll data for September was shocking, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%. U.S. technology stocks led gains, and Taiwan stock futures soared to 49,495 points in night trading.
The U.S. non-farm payroll data for September was shocking, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%. U.S. technology stocks led gains, and Taiwan stock futures soared to 49,495 points in night trading.
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自由时报45 minutes agoBusiness1 min readChinaView original

The U.S. non-farm payroll data for September was shocking, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%. U.S. technology stocks led gains, and Taiwan stock futures soared to 49,495 points in night trading.

Non-agricultural dataunemployment rateInterest rate hike expectations

Quick Look

  • The number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by only 29,000 in September, far lower than the expected 90,000.
  • The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, causing the probability of an interest rate hike in October to plummet to 18%.
  • U.S. technology stocks rose sharply, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising 3.27%, TSMC ADR rising 2.38%, and Taiwan stock futures soaring more than 800 points in night trading to 49,495 points.

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

U.S. non-farm payrolls data for September showed only 29,000 new jobs were added, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, far lower than market expectations, indicating a cooling of the labor market.

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[Reporter Zhuo Yijun/Taipei Report] The United States released the latest non-farm payroll data for September, which was shocking. It added only 29,000 people, which was about 90,000 lower than market expectations. The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, which was higher than the expected 4.1%. This lowered the chance of raising interest rates in October. U.S. technology stocks rose sharply in response. At around 10:50 a.m., the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index soared 3.27%, TSMC ADR surged 2.38%, and Taiwan stock futures soared more than 800 points in night trading, directly crossing the 49,000 point mark, reaching a maximum of 49,495 points, up more than 1.5%. Taiwan stocks are expected to hit 50,000 points next week.

After the release of U.S. non-farm data, the 2-year U.S. bond yield fell to 4.73%, and the 10-year U.S. bond yield fell to 5.19%. Short-term and long-term yields fell simultaneously, indicating that expectations for further interest rate increases have cooled.

Please read on...

The legal person pointed out that the cooling of expectations for another interest rate hike in October will help support the evaluation of technology stocks. However, if the slowdown in hiring further affects consumption and revenue, the market focus may turn to the risk of profit downward revision. The current probability of an interest rate hike in October has dropped from 28% before the release of non-agricultural data to 18%, indicating that the cooling in hiring and wages has further strengthened expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will suspend interest rate hikes, and led to a rebound in stocks and bonds. However, the suspension of interest rate hikes does not mean that interest rates are about to be cut. It is recommended to focus on profit-growing stocks related to AI semiconductors and cloud infrastructure, and deploy them in batches to avoid chasing prices.

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  • Taiwan stocks are expected to hit 50,000 points next week

    Likely · Within weeks

Open Questions

  • Will rising unemployment continue?
  • Will the Fed keep interest rates on hold at future meetings?
  • Can Taiwan stocks break through the 50,000-point mark next week?

Related Topics

Non-agricultural data
OrganizationsFederal ReserveTSMC
PlacesUnited StatesTaiwan
Topicsunemployment rateInterest rate hike expectationstechnology stocksPhiladelphia Semiconductor IndexTSMC ADRTaiwan stock futures
This article was originally published by 自由时报.

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