ECB minutes emphasize "caution against volatility in energy prices and inflation risks"

The minutes of the monetary policy meeting of the ECB Governing Council held on 9-10 September 2026 have been published.

In the minutes, it was stated that all members agreed that the risks to the inflation outlook were upward in an environment of extraordinary energy price volatility and widespread uncertainty, and it was emphasized that a "neutral" language should be used in the bank's communication due to the high uncertainty created by the shock in oil prices.

Thus, it was stated in the minutes that the aim was to avoid giving the impression that the interest rate increase decision taken in September was part of a predetermined tightening cycle, and that monetary policy makers avoided signaling that this step was the "last interest rate increase" and pointed out the importance of "constant caution".

There are concerns that the energy shock will trigger permanent inflation

In the minutes, it was noted that ECB officials warned that the energy shock may deepen further and that its impact on other product prices and wages may be more severe than anticipated.

The minutes emphasized that the market-based inflation outlook continues to be primarily driven by developments in energy prices, and included concerns that a cold winter combined with possible supply disruptions or low storage levels could further escalate gas prices.

It was stated that the longer energy prices remain high, the greater the risk of increasing general inflation.

Inflation is at its highest level in 3 years

On the other hand, according to analysts, the ECB aims to prevent the shock in oil prices from having a permanent effect on the general price structure.

High energy costs triggered by the war in the Middle East risk creating "second-round effects" where wages and prices push each other up, putting pressure on consumers and companies.

Meanwhile, high energy costs pushed inflation in the Eurozone to 3.8 percent in September, the highest level in the last 3 years.

The ECB predicts that overall inflation will remain well above the 2 percent target until the first half of 2027.

Financial markets expect the ECB Governing Council to keep the policy rate constant at 2.50 percent at the meeting at the end of this month and to increase the interest rate for the third time this year in December.