WTO raises growth forecast for global goods trade to 3.9 percent, lowers it to 3.3 percent for services trade

According to the WTO's Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report published today, global goods trade volume exceeded expectations and increased by 3.5 percent in the first half of this year, despite the disruptions caused by the war in the Middle East.

This performance reflected the capacity of supply chains to adapt to shocks affecting the energy, fertilizer and transportation markets.

Although crude oil exports from the Middle East decreased by approximately 24 percent and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports by 47 percent on an annual basis in the first half of this year, the increase in shipments from other suppliers helped keep the decline in global exports limited to 6 percent in crude oil and 1 percent in LNG.

With the introduction of alternative suppliers, fertilizer markets adapted despite the setbacks.

As trade flows were rerouted through alternative ports and corridors, global container handling volume remained resilient, rising 3.9 percent on an annual basis from the beginning of this year to mid-July.

At the same time, strong demand linked to AI investments offset the negative effects of the war in the Middle East. Demand for goods that enable AI, such as semiconductors and servers, accounted for 47 percent of growth in global goods trade in the first half of this year. Trade in these products increased by 67 percent on an annual basis, and the growth seen in this field in the last two years has accelerated further.

On the other hand, the WTO warned that the gains created by the growth in global goods trade and artificial intelligence investments were not distributed equally. Trade in services and some regions were more exposed to the effects of conflict.

Gains are not equal

Due to the resilience of global trade in the first half of this year, WTO economists raised their growth forecasts for goods trade.

Accordingly, global goods trade volume is expected to grow by 3.9 percent this year. This rate remains well above the 1.9 percent growth forecast announced by the WTO in March.

World trade in goods is expected to grow by 4.1 percent in 2027.

The upward revision to global goods trade was driven by the adaptation of global supply chains, despite the disruptions in the energy and fertilizer markets, and strong investments in artificial intelligence-oriented goods, increasing the trade of these products.

Trade in services is expected to grow by 3.3 percent this year. This rate remains below the 4.8 percent estimate published by the WTO in March.

It is estimated that trade in services will grow by 6.4 percent in 2027.

WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala stated that these data reflect the resilience of trade and said, "When disruptions occur, an integrated world economy and rules-based trading system provide economies with flexibility to maintain the flow of essential goods to businesses and households in need. However, some have felt this shock more than others, and not everyone has access to emerging opportunities such as artificial intelligence. It is of great importance to ensure that the rules-based trading system continues to absorb shocks and close the gaps, thus ensuring that opportunities are open to everyone." carries." made his assessment.