The Brazilian economy fell 1.1% from May to June, indicated this Monday (17) one of the main previews of the Brazilian economy, the GDP Monitor, produced by Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)
Despite the drop in the sixth month of the year, the second quarter showed growth of 0.3%, driven by consumption. With this result, the positive performance in the 12 months is 1.8%.
The monthly study is prepared by FGV's Brazilian Institute of Economics (Ibre), which makes estimates on the behavior of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), an indicator of all goods and services produced in the country, based on data from industry, commerce, services and agriculture.
The official data is released quarterly by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
Deceleration
Economist Juliana Trece, coordinator of the research, points out that the survey shows a slowdown in economic activity.
In the first quarter of 2026, growth compared to the previous quarter had been 1%.
Trece points out that the slowdown was felt in the three major economic activities surveyed: agriculture, industry and services. She adds that only consumption did not slow down in the quarter, maintaining the growth rate seen at the beginning of the year.
“This maintenance of consumption growth was mainly due to the good performance of the consumption of services and durable products”, he states.
Despite the loss of strength in growth quarter by quarter, the economist highlights that the result for the period between April and June was the 20th consecutive positive result.
“This demonstrates that, although the rate may be low, the economy continues to produce positive results amid the external and internal context, which has proven challenging.”
Economic context
Among the reasons that worsen the macroeconomic scenario, she cites the rise in the price of a barrel of oil, caused by the war in the Middle East, high interest rates in Brazil, and the population's high debt.
At the beginning of August, the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) of the Central Bank (BC) reduced the basic interest rate, the Selic, by 0.25 percentage points, leaving it at 14% per year.
The high interest rate is a BC tool to try to curb inflation, since the high Selic makes credit more expensive and discourages consumption and productive investments.
Components
The GDP Monitor shows that, in the second quarter, household consumption grew 2.6% compared to the first three months of 2026. Exports rose 4.5%, and imports, 5.7%.
The data is seasonally adjusted, that is, seasonal variations were excluded, so that it is possible to compare immediately consecutive periods.
The study estimates that the economy's investment rate in May was 18.5% (in the first quarter it was 18.6%).
According to FGV, in current values, the GDP accumulated in the first half of the year is estimated at R$6.557 trillion.
Official result
The GDP Monitor is one of the studies that serve as a thermometer for the Brazilian economy. Another survey is the Central Bank's Economic Activity Index (IBC-Br), also released this Monday (17), which indicated a decline of 0.6% in June compared to May.
The BC projects an expansion of 0.2% from the first to the second quarter and an increase of 1.5% in 12 months.
The official GDP result for the second quarter will be presented by IBGE on September 1st.
The last official release was at the end of May, which indicated growth of 1.1% in the first quarter of 2026.
