The Taipei Mayoral Candidate of the Democratic Progressive Party Shen Boyang is advancing with the momentum of "Ocean Current". In this regard, writer Zhao Xiaohui said that when Jiang Wanan looked ferocious, while Shen Boyang always held a whiteboard and data, smiled and apologized, and continued to talk about child abuse and work safety, the mirror of hatred instead gave a steady stream of sympathy and rational votes to Shen Boyang.
Zhao Xiaohui stated in a Facebook PO post that Shen Boyang and Jiang Wanan are now at a five-wave plateau, with 23 days left for voting. Although there is no obvious golden cross to widen the gap, this election has "changed the subject and the guest", and Shen Boyang is now leading the election campaign. The question for the 2026 Taipei mayoral election is no longer whether Chiang Wanan can be re-elected, but whether Shen Boyang can be elected to the Taipei City Government through the "miracle of ocean currents". Even if there is no vote yet, Shen Boyang has already won half of the vote.
Zhao Xiaohui pointed out that Jiang Wanan had gone from being able to win even when lying down to being a scholar and passively accepting moves. He had already lost half of the game. As long as Shen Boyang breaks through the plateau stage, he will start a second growth curve again. Jiang Wanan is by no means exhausted. He also has a second growth curve, but the growth mechanism of the two is completely different. Shen Boyang's "first curve" has been fully utilized, which is to successfully bring pan-green supporters back to the team, and at the same time attract the attention of the middle voters (young Internet generation between 20 and 39 years old and inherit Huang Shanshan's vote 53%), allowing his support rate to exceed 35% and take up 41% of the pan-green base.
Zhao Xiaohui continued, where is his second curve? The key to success or failure in Taipei City lies in the population over 50 years old. The discussion must be changed from "Digital Black Bear/ "Defensive resilience" is translated as "old houses are earthquake-resistant, public long-term care is stress-reducing, and barrier-free facilities for the elderly". Next, there are still more than 40% of grassroots and median voters who stay in the Chiang Wanan camp based on their distrust of the DPP in power, but they also There are doubts about Jiang Wanan's old-school bureaucrats. After all, they are looking forward to new politics. Jiang Wanan is indeed close to the limit and has no ammunition in terms of opening up new voters among the middle and young people, but there is still a growth curve that can allow him to turn around, which is fear mobilization.
Zhao Xiaohui analyzed that Chiang Wanan does not need to prove how good he is. As long as he continues to strengthen his existential anxiety that "if Taipei falls, the Democratic Progressive Party will be completely liquidated." Dark blue and dark white voters, who were originally indifferent to Chiang Wanan and dissatisfied with the municipal government, will be mobilized in the opposite direction out of fear. In the last two weeks before the election, the city government's administrative machinery can offer substantial benefits (district chief subsidies, district chief subsidies, local government subsidies). This is the hard resource of the current leader. This will not be reflected in the threads of young people, but will firmly nail every swing elder vote in the traditional community and neighborhood chief system. There are still 23 days before the voting day. Every day must be used as two days. Don’t give up any hope and fight until the last moment.
Zhao Xiaohui added, but she still feels that Shen Boyang has a greater chance of winning. After all, voters are tired of hate mobilization. Any political strategy has a life cycle. The manipulation of fear and hatred is a high-consumption weapon. From the 2024 general election, the struggle between the government and the opposition in Congress to the past year's In terms of political offense and defense, the Blue and White camp has sounded the alarm of "hating the DPP, calling for a general recall, and resisting China and witch hunting" too frequently and too harshly. By the end of 2026, the middle voters and the brain's defense mechanism have become exhausted. When the crisis is shouted every day, voters will start to get bored.
Zhao Xiaohui bluntly said that Jiang Wanan's ability to win high votes in the past relied on his harmless image of being "gentle, sunny, and non-stick". But when he had to drag Xu Qiaoxin and Wang Hongwei to fight in a scorched-earth battle in order to defend, and even said in night markets and interviews that he was "anti-big recall and anti-green camp liquidation", the collapse of his personality actually made people who originally valued his "non-traditional Kuomintang character" The urban middle class was disappointed. When Jiang Wanan looked ferocious, while Shen Boyang always held a whiteboard and data, smiled and apologized, and continued to talk about child abuse and work safety, the mirror of hatred instead gave a steady stream of sympathy and rational votes to Shen Boyang.
