A press report revealed that the leaders of the US Republican Party are preparing for the possibility of incurring major electoral losses in the midterm elections, and that they have already begun a “major battle” to exchange accusations over responsibility for the decline in the party’s chances, even before the results are announced.
According to the report published by the American website “Axios”, Republicans acknowledge in their private conversations that the main suspect in the possible decline of the party’s chances is “President Donald Trump” because of his decisions related to the war on Iran and tariffs.
The report indicates that Republican senators, who are seeking to retain their seats, are unlikely to criticize Trump publicly for fear of political repercussions, while departing members may be more willing to criticize him and his team.
On the other hand, Trump is not expected to bear responsibility for any loss. Rather, he may direct his criticism at Republican senators, whom he is accustomed to attacking publicly.
The irony of the second midterm elections during the Trump era is that although Republicans are deeply convinced that they will lose the House of Representatives, Trump can still claim victory if the party manages to maintain control of the Senate.
The report quoted a prominent Republican Party strategist as saying: “This is Donald Trump’s election. He takes full credit if we win, and bears full responsibility if we lose.”
The American war with Iran is at the forefront of the factors that Republicans hold responsible for the decline in the chances of their candidates, as Trump's decision to go to war led to an increase in gasoline and diesel prices, which turned into a clear electoral burden on the party's candidates.
In this context, the report quoted the Attorney General of the State of Texas, Ken Paxton, as saying, during a closed election fundraising event last September: “It is not about customs duties, but about the war and the prices of gasoline and diesel.”
Trump's trade policies also contributed to increasing pressure on Republicans, especially in agricultural areas, where producers faced rising costs and uncertainty about export markets.
Republican Senate candidate for Michigan, Mike Rogers, criticized the tariffs imposed on Canada, calling for an end to trade disputes. He said, in an election ad last October: “We must end this tariff war now.”
The reasons for Republican concern were not limited to the president's policies, as some strategists hold candidates chosen by Trump responsible for complicating a number of electoral races that were supposed to be easier for the party.
Ken Paxton in Texas and Senator Darlene Graham in South Carolina stand out in this context, as Republican campaigns were forced to spend large sums of money to defend seats that would have been safer if other candidates had been chosen.
Some Republican senators also faced criticism for what their colleagues described as arrogance and laziness, after seats that were considered guaranteed were transformed into heated battlefields in the last moments, including Roger Marshall in Kansas and Cindy Hyde-Smith in Mississippi.
Concerns extended to the poor performance of some of the party's candidates for governor in Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio, amid fears that this would negatively impact Senate candidates. The popularity of Republican candidate Vivek Ramaswamy witnessed a sharp decline during the final weeks of the campaign.
Among other factors that aroused Republican dissatisfaction was the party's failure to attract strong electoral figures in some states, as it was unable to convince Georgia Governor Brian Kemp to run in the Senate race, while in New Hampshire it was forced to choose John Sununu, the former senator, instead of his brother Chris Sununu, the former governor of the state.
On the other hand, Senate Democratic Minority Leader Chuck Schumer succeeded in attracting prominent candidates in Alaska, Ohio, and Iowa, although the party faced greater difficulties in Michigan and Maine.
Although Trump and his allies have huge financial resources to support Republican candidates, some party members believe that the money arrived too late to save candidates in danger of losing.
Trump's focus on files far from livelihood issues, such as construction projects in Washington, D.C., and the Kennedy Center for the Arts, also aroused dissatisfaction with Republicans who hoped that the recent election messages would be directed toward the economy and the cost of living.
A Republican strategist criticized Trump's choice to hold a press conference in front of the reflecting pool of the Lincoln Memorial in Washington, DC, on Monday, and considered that this was not the most appropriate choice for the closing message of the election campaign.
In light of these differences, the midterm elections appear to be a test not only of the Republicans’ ability to maintain their majority in Congress, but also of the party’s cohesion and its relationship with Trump, amid expectations that the results, whatever they may be, will turn into the beginning of an internal battle to determine who is responsible for the gains or losses.
Recent polls ahead of the midterm elections indicate a competitive race for the Michigan Senate seat; Democratic candidate Abdul Sayed is ahead of his Republican competitor, Mike Rogers.
Al-Sayed, a former public health official, led in all recent polls, with differences ranging from one point in the “Insider Advantage” poll to 11 points in the “New York Times” and “Sina” polls. Other polls showed his lead by a margin of between two and nine points, according to what the American newspaper Newsweek reported.
In the latest poll conducted by Poll Volt in cooperation with Emerson between October 31 and November 1, Al-Sayyed received 51 percent support, compared to 45 percent for Rogers. The Intel Atlas poll also showed Al-Sayed leading by 54 percent, compared to 46 percent for Rogers.
As for the “New York Times” and “Sina” poll, which was published (Sunday), it showed the largest difference between the candidates, at 53 percent for Mr. compared to 42 percent for Rogers. On the other hand, the “Insider Advantage” poll showed a slight lead for Al-Sayyid, by 47 percent compared to 46 percent, a difference that is within the margin of error.
The average opinion poll, published by the Real Clear Polling website, gives Al-Sayyed a lead of 5.3 percentage points, as of Tuesday morning. The forecasting platforms “PolyMarket” and “Calce” also show his probability of winning at about 81 percent.
But electoral forecasts appear more cautious; The Cook Political Report classifies the race as “slightly Democratic,” as does the Sabato Crystal Ball, while Inside Elections places it in the “Slight Democratic lean.”
Voters, whether in the state of Michigan or nationwide, go to the polls to determine the balance of power in Congress.
The competition is gaining importance as Republicans have a majority of 53 seats compared to 47 for Democrats in the Senate, which requires Democrats to achieve a net gain of four seats to control it.
Al-Sayyed's victory is considered necessary to enhance the Democratic Party's chances of maintaining the state seat, in conjunction with his competition for other seats held by Republicans in the states of Maine, Iowa, North Carolina, and Ohio. As for Rogers' victory, it will strengthen the Republicans' position and make the Democrats' task more difficult.
Despite Al-Sayed's lead in the polls, the disparity of differences and the closeness of the results in some of them keep the chances of Rogers winning intact, without prior determination of the outcome of the race.
The state of anxiety is escalating inside the White House, with Americans participating, on Tuesday, in the midterm elections, in light of growing fears that Republicans will lose their majority in Congress, and the resulting parliamentary investigations and political confrontations may hinder President Donald Trump’s agenda during the remaining two years of his term.
According to a report by The Telegraph newspaper, discussions within the Trump administration are no longer limited to how to win the elections, but rather have extended to preparing for a defeat scenario, amid fears of some officials that they will be subjected to intense investigations led by the Democrats if they take control of Congress, in addition to the possibility of moving measures to impeach the president.
The state of tension reached the point where Trump considered issuing wide-ranging pardons for junior employees in his administration, with the aim of alleviating their fears of possible prosecution. The report quoted a person familiar with the atmosphere inside the White House as saying: “People are coming and asking for a presidential pardon for fear that the Democrats will exploit the situation.”
The pressure on the Republican Party is increasing in light of the rise in energy costs, and the decline in voter enthusiasm due to the continuation of the war with Iran for about 8 months, even though Trump expected at the beginning that it would last only a few weeks.
Diesel prices also continue to approach record high levels, putting Republican candidates under pressure in states that traditionally tend to support the party, such as Iowa, Kansas, Ohio and Texas.
Democrats need to win four additional seats in both the House of Representatives and the Senate to tip the balance of the current majority in their favor. While opinion polls suggest their lead in the House of Representatives race, the competition for the Senate remains undecided.
A Republican loss would plunge Washington into a state of political stalemate, as Trump would face difficulty in passing legislation before a Democratic majority, threatening the implementation of his remaining domestic priorities.
In preparation for the possibility of losing the majority, the White House has developed a plan aimed at continuing to implement key parts of Trump's political agenda, even if Democrats control both chambers.
Prominent officials, including White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, worked to prepare a scenario that would allow the president to continue ruling without the need for Congress’ approval on some files.
An official told Reuters that White House Legal Advisor Will Scharf and his team are studying the limits of presidential powers that Trump can use unilaterally, and how to defend his decisions before the judiciary.
The proposed measures include imposing new customs duties on imports of vital minerals, tightening visa rules, and taking measures aimed at reducing housing and construction costs, through executive decisions that do not require Congressional approval.
وستواجه هذه الأوامر طعوناً قانونية قوية.
However, Trump also has the power to veto Democratic legislation he does not like, something he is expected to do.
The state of frustration within the White House is not limited to electoral concerns, as the president feels dissatisfied with the absence of prominent figures to defend him publicly, address his criticism, and highlight the achievements of his administration.
This problem increased after some of those close to him, including former White House spokeswoman Carolyn Levitt, moved to advisory roles outside the administration.
The appointment of conservative commentator Katie Zacharias as White House spokeswoman also sparked controversy, as she left her position after only 5 days, following her first press conference, during which she faced difficulty in giving a written speech, and was limited to answering three questions from reporters, before she made a verbal error while talking about her husband. She inadvertently referred to her husband as “my boss.”
Trump's dissatisfaction extended to his political advisors, Chris La Civita and James Blair, after he learned of their work as advisors to a pro-Russian party in Bosnia, at a time when the Republican Party was waging a fateful electoral battle. He threatened to dismiss them if their foreign interests conflicted with their political work, before the two advisors agreed to donate their fees, which amounted to hundreds of thousands of dollars, to Trump's presidential library.
This sparked criticism that some of those around the president were more interested in achieving personal gain than in the future of the party. A poll conducted by the Harris Foundation for The Guardian newspaper showed that 76 percent of participants believe that officials care more about achieving personal gain than helping ordinary Americans.
In the same context, Trump criticized Alina Haba, his former personal lawyer, for obtaining a contract worth $50 million with the family of a Venezuelan banker who had previously received a presidential pardon. He told reporters at his club in Mar-a-Lago, Florida: “I thought the matter was completely provocative, outrageous, and completely unacceptable.”
The Justice Department is also investigating Corey Lewandowski, a top aide to Kristi Noem, the former Homeland Security Secretary, on suspicion of abusing his position for personal financial gain.
In light of the atmosphere of anxiety, Trump continued his moves to rally support for Republican candidates threatened with loss in crucial states, holding more than 20 election rallies during the last twenty days, during which his tours extended from Alaska to Mississippi.
A Republican Party veteran working on campaigns across the country described voter mobilization efforts as a "fierce battle."
Trump is said to regularly ask his staff about opinion polls in the states he visits, asking how successful Republican efforts are.
A prominent Republican official close to the president, who spoke anonymously, said: “I think we will keep the Senate.” He added that Trump's intense election campaigns had previously made a big difference in a number of races.
Republicans have a clear financial advantage, after Trump's political groups spent about $277 million to support the party's candidates since September, which puts the current elections on track to become the most expensive in the history of the American midterm elections.
But this spending may not be enough to compensate for the economic and political pressures, as the tariffs imposed by Trump caused turmoil in the agricultural sector and the outbreak of a trade war with Canada, which weakened the Republicans’ position in a number of Senate races in states, such as Iowa, Michigan, Kansas, Nebraska, Ohio, and Maine.
As the war with Iran continues, and criticism mounts regarding the cost of living and trade policies, Trump faces an electoral test that may determine the shape of his relationship with Congress during the coming period.
While the president continues to warn voters of the repercussions of a Democratic victory, his advisors are preparing behind closed doors for a more difficult political phase, in which the White House may find itself facing a Congress that is not controlled by the Republican Party.
