Fears are rising in the United States about a repeat of the events of the storming of the Congress building on January 6, 2021, with the midterm elections, amid warnings that President Donald Trump may refuse to acknowledge the results if the Republicans lose, and push his supporters to protest in the streets, which could open the door to new unrest that threatens the stability of the electoral process.
The Telegraph newspaper quoted Jason Riedel, one of the participants in the storming of the Capitol, as saying that he did not realize the seriousness of what he had done until after he was imprisoned for 90 days in 2022. He rethought his political positions and gradually abandoned his support for Trump.
“I went to the Congress building mainly out of boredom and searching for a purpose in my life,” Riedel, 38, said. "I was an alcoholic, and I wasn't able to hold down a job."
He added that the prison period helped him give up alcohol and think more rationally, explaining that believing Trump's statements became more difficult for him after that experience.
Fears of a repeat of the violence scenario are increasing, in light of the possibility of a decline in Republican performance in the elections, which may push Trump - according to the warnings of his critics - to question the integrity of the vote, accuse some states of tampering with the results, and then mobilize his supporters to protest.
“There is a danger of repeating history,” Riedel said.
Unprecedented security measures inside polling stations
Concerns extended to security measures. Some polling stations in hotly contested states have resorted to installing bulletproof glass and additional anti-terrorism measures, while some election officials now carry firearms to protect themselves.
In this context, Mark Warner - a prominent Democrat and member of the Senate Intelligence Committee - warned that Trump could use “any tool” to reach the result he wants, while David Pecker, executive director of the Center for Election Innovation and Research, pointed out that election officials are facing an unprecedented situation in American history.
“Election officials are currently living in an environment where they are thinking, for the first time, not just in their careers,” Baker said. Rather, in American history, there is a possibility that the federal government will be an adversary seeking to intervene actively.”
On the other hand, Trump rejected these fears, and considered them attempts by Democrats to cause panic, but he raised more questions when he was asked on October 27 whether he would accept the results of the midterm elections. He replied: “I will accept it if it is a fair election.”
Accusations regarding voting integrity and legal action
One of the most prominent points of contention relates to Trump's accusations of widespread voting by non-citizens. Especially irregular migrants, although there is no evidence to prove that these practices occur on a scale that can influence election results.
Last July, the US Department of Justice sent letters to election officials in all states, warning them of the possibility of being prosecuted if they did not take sufficient measures to prevent non-citizens from voting.
Last week, the department asked election officials in Washington to exclude ballots belonging to more than 400 people sent by mail, claiming that they may not be American citizens, after a similar request in California that included about 20,000 people, along with other requests in Wisconsin and Georgia.
Washington State Secretary of State Steve Hobbs criticized the timing of these claims, saying: “There is no doubt that the timing of this request, one week before the general election, is intended to raise unfounded doubts about the results.”
Threats haunt workers and fears of voter abstention
The repercussions were not limited to political officials; Organizations concerned with monitoring the elections revealed an increase in threats against polling station workers, which led to a wave of resignations, while one survey showed that about a third of election officials were subjected to harassment, including publishing their personal data online and electronic targeting campaigns.
Trump's critics also fear that threats related to the presence of Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents at polling stations during the voting process will deter some voters of immigrant origins from participating, despite the Department of Homeland Security announcing that it has no plans to deploy its agents to target polling centers.
In an attempt to enhance oversight, the Democrats intend to send thousands of observers to monitor the progress of voting and monitor any attempts to intimidate voters, while the Department of Justice plans to deploy a thousand federal observers, three times the number who participated in the 2022 midterm elections.
Will the events of “Capitol” be repeated?
Fears are growing that rejecting the results, if Republicans lose, will lead to a series of court appeals and complaints that could create political confusion until the new Congress convenes on January 3, 2027.
Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster, warned of voters' concerns about a repeat of the storming of Congress, saying: “Voters are extremely concerned about the possibility of other events similar to what happened on January 6, and about the lack of necessary preparations to prevent this. They also believe that while the elites are largely focused on the legal path, Trump will not care about that; Rather, he will resort to mobilizing armed people.”
Although some of the former participants in the storming events, including Riedel, have distanced themselves from the Trump movement, the president is still seeking to win over his former supporters, after he issued a comprehensive presidential pardon for more than 1,500 people who were charged in connection with the storming of Congress, and pledged to make a federal fund available to compensate them.
Riedel hopes that the incidents of violence will not be repeated, considering that the Corona pandemic was one of the factors that contributed to exaggerating the events of January 6, because many people stopped working at that time. He said: “I think violence will happen this time, but I pray to God that what happened will not be repeated.”
With the ballot boxes open for nearly 100 million Americans, the world is looking forward to the results of the midterm congressional elections, not only as a measure of the new balances between the Republican and Democratic parties, but also as a very important turning point for the domestic and foreign policies adopted by President Donald Trump.
Early voting witnessed record numbers reaching more than 56 million in the 50 states on the eve of the elections, which include choosing all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, and about a third of the seats (35 seats this year) in the Senate, in addition to 36 state governors.
Until the last hours before the polls opened after exhausting campaigns, the Silver Bulletin average indicated a Democratic lead of about 9 points in public polls, which is higher compared to its counterpart at this point in 2018, when it reached 7.2 points.
The midterm elections are often considered a referendum on the American president and his policies, and this is what Trump established when he made the vote a test of support for his administration, calling on voters to deal with him as if he were a candidate. This strategy can motivate his supporters, but it also gives those dissatisfied with his administration a direct opportunity to voice their opposition.
President's numbers
President Trump enters this referendum with low numbers; 37.3 percent of supporters, compared to 59.9 percent of those who rejected, according to the Silver Bulletin, 36 percent versus 59 percent in the New York Times poll with Siena College, and 40 percent versus 60 percent in the NBC News poll, the highest percentage of rejection of him in the network’s polls, while his support reached 32 percent in the Reuters poll with Ipsos, an increase of one point from the lowest level. Record it.
Before Americans put their votes in the ballot boxes, an NBC News poll showed that 52 percent of registered voters preferred Democratic control of Congress, compared to 45 percent for Republicans. In a Reuters poll with Ipsos on October 26, Democrats led by 47 percent versus 36 percent among registered voters, and 53 percent versus 44 percent among likely voters. A national poll conducted by The New York Times and Siena College gave them a 10-point lead in House races, and a 5-point lead in states holding Senate elections.
Although they vary, the averages confirm the same trend. The On Point Politics average recorded 53.4 percent for Democrats compared to 41.4 percent for Republicans, a difference of 12 points, while the Bull Check average for Monday recorded 51 percent versus 42.7 percent, a difference of 8.3 points.
Battle of the Senate
If Republicans now control the Senate by 53 seats to 47, Democrats need to gain a net 4 seats, because Vice President J.D. Vance settles any tie. The most notable developments came from the latest round of New York Times polls with Siena, which showed the lead of the Democratic candidates in 7 states that could determine the fate of the House.
In Michigan, Abdel-Rahman Al-Sayed led Mike Rogers by 53 percent to 42 percent. In Texas, Representative James Talarico led Attorney General Ken Paxton by 50 percent to 43 percent. In Maine, Troy Jackson led Senator Susan Collins by 51 percent to 45 percent. In Kansas, Adam Hamilton led Senator Roger Marshall by 49 percent to 44 percent. In Ohio, Sherrod Brown led John Hasted for the same. As for Alaska, it witnessed Mary Peltula leading Senator Dan Sullivan by 48 percent versus 46 percent, and Iowa was closest, with Josh Turek leading Ashley Henson by 48 percent versus 47 percent.
In a separate poll published on October 28, Democrat Peggy Flanagan led Michelle Tafoya in Minnesota by 54 percent to 40 percent, while Republican Ashley Moody led Angie Nixon in Florida by 50 percent to 44 percent. In South Carolina, Democrat Annie Andrews tied with Republican Darlene Graham, appointed to the Senate to succeed her late brother Lindsey Graham, at 48 percent.
The Bull Check model, updated on November 2, gave Democrats a 68 percent chance of controlling the chamber, compared to 29 percent for Republicans and 3 percent for no party to control. But Republicans may benefit if polls underestimate their support.
High prices and war in the battle of the “Representatives”
The House of Representatives appears closer to the Democrats' reach. The Wall Street Journal expected them to win 224 seats. That is, an increase of 6 seats over the 218 seats needed for a majority. The Cook Political Report classified 222 seats in categories that lean toward Democrats, compared to 195 for Republicans, with 18 swing districts remaining, 14 of which are held by Republicans.
The high cost of living remains the greatest weakness of President Trump’s administration in these elections. In the New York Times poll with Siena, only 29 percent supported Trump’s handling of the cost of living, compared to 69 percent of those who rejected it, and 24 percent supported his handling of gasoline prices, compared to 73 percent. A Reuters poll with Ipsos found that 73 percent believe that these costs are going in the wrong direction, while 37 percent preferred the Democratic approach to the economy, compared to 33 percent of Republicans.
Voters expressed their dissatisfaction with both parties, but Democrats were considered more capable of addressing issues such as the economy, health care, corruption, and foreign wars, while Republicans maintained their superiority on the immigration file.
President Trump currently enjoys a wide margin in foreign policy. He will not be greatly affected by the results of these elections, except when the new Congress begins its work at the beginning of next January. But Congress controls the money, reviews arms deals, and can force a vote on war powers, and a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives would pressure the administration on the costs of the Iran war and tariffs. If Republicans maintain their majority, they will give President Trump a freer hand in his final two years.
