(Deutsche Welle Chinese website) The Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday (October 18), citing people familiar with the matter, that the Kremlin proposed holding a dialogue with Trump and Xi Jinping during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Shenzhen, China, from November 18 to 19.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed to the newspaper that the parties were discussing the possibility of holding a meeting. He said: "At present, there are no clear ideas about the meeting itself or its possible agenda. However, all three parties acknowledge that holding such a meeting is theoretically possible."
A senior U.S. administration official said Trump has not agreed to hold the summit but may be open to the idea given his desire to fulfill his campaign promise to end the war. During his campaign, Trump promised to end the war on "Day One" of his new term.
The newspaper quoted information disclosed by people familiar with the matter as saying that Russian officials had proposed the idea to China through diplomatic channels. China said it would not object if Trump agreed.
Analysts who study China issues pointed out to the Wall Street Journal that if the trilateral dialogue is held in China, it will be a big step for Xi Jinping to enhance China’s status as a diplomatic mediating force. Sun Yun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center, a Washington think tank, told the newspaper: "China wants to be seen as a hub between major powers and potentially become a mediator between the United States and Russia."
However, some analysts believe that the trilateral dialogue is not without its disadvantages for Beijing: if the trilateral dialogue is held during the APEC summit, China is also worried that the talks may dominate the spotlight and dilute Beijing's plan to use the summit to demonstrate its influence in the Asia-Pacific region. Analysts also say Xi is trying to maintain a careful balance between supporting Putin and maintaining relations with Europe. Such a tripartite meeting may also involve China more directly in the war in Ukraine and trigger a backlash from European countries.
The newspaper later reported that Putin proposed the idea during a phone conversation with Trump on October 9, citing a former Russian intelligence official with knowledge of the situation. The diesel deal between the two countries was also concluded during this call.
Trump announced on the same day that he had agreed to Russia's supply of Russian diesel to the United States and global markets in an effort to reduce global energy prices.
Analysts told Reuters that the U.S. midterm elections are approaching, and the American people are already under pressure from the rising cost of living caused by factors such as the U.S.-Israeli war with Iraq. If sanctions against Russia take effect, it may further push up oil prices, which will adversely affect the Republican Party's midterm election.
A week later, Trump signed an exemption order on the grounds of national interest to suspend the implementation of a new round of sanctions against Russia previously passed by Congress. Critics said the move was a concession to Putin and a betrayal of Ukraine and its European allies.
Last Sunday (October 18), Russian authorities released news that St. Petersburg had been attacked by a large-scale Ukrainian drone. After the attack, Trump posted a message on the social media platform Truth Social criticizing Zelensky for targeting Russian diesel refineries. "He is well aware that these attacks have seriously damaged the global diesel market and have also affected the United States." Trump said that he "doesn't want to end this war at all, and he may not want to end it from the beginning."
Trump also explained the reasons for his decision to suspend sanctions on Russia, saying that he "did not want to take any action that might cause Russia to foolishly withdraw from the negotiating table."
The Wall Street Journal analyzed that Moscow believes that the potential trilateral dialogue between the United States, China and Russia will help consolidate Russia’s status as a member of the global club of great powers. This format for talks would also exclude Europe, which the Kremlin sees as the main obstacle to Russia's victory in Ukraine. The newspaper quoted a former Russian intelligence official as saying that Putin has grand but unrealistic visions for this tripartite talks mechanism, hoping to build it into a second "Yalta Conference."
The Wall Street Journal further analyzed that if the leaders of the United States, China and Russia jointly discuss the Ukrainian issue, but Ukraine is not invited to participate in the talks, it will set an unprecedented precedent and arouse vigilance in Europe and other regions. For example, people may intensify the concern that Taiwan may one day be used for negotiations on similar occasions, especially under the background that China has not given up its military reunification.
