Black Bear Academy" The new doctrine of the US military focuses on "first day of combat" and Taiwan must defend the first day

The U.S. Army published a guideline on "How the Army Fights" in early October, clearly positioning the Chinese People's Liberation Army as an "advancing threat" and requiring frontline troops in the first island chain to be prepared to "act on the first day of a conflict."

The US military intervened in the war on the first day, which is equivalent to telling China, do you want to fight a blitzkrieg? Don’t even think about it!

The first island chain runs from Kyushu, Japan, through Okinawa, Taiwan, and south to the Philippines. In other words, the "first day of combat" mentioned in this guideline takes place around Taiwan.

The most critical change in this document is that the US military admits that "transoceanic reinforcements from the United States are no longer reliable" because opponents may attack ports, railways and other mobilization facilities before the US military can gather.

Therefore, the US military must pre-deploy long-range precision firepower, multi-domain task forces, ammunition and fuel on the first island chain, and establish logistical supply bases on the second island chain.

This change has at least three meanings for Taiwan:

First, scare the road to further increase

The People's Liberation Army most hopes to achieve a quick victory and minimize political and war variables.

Therefore, the US military directly stated that "it will intervene in the war on the first day", which is equivalent to telling China: Do you want to fight a blitzkrieg? Don’t even think about it!

Second, Taiwan's "first-day response" is very important

The US military emphasizes that it can fight on the first day, provided that the battlefield can hold up.

Taiwan's immediate response is very important. The national military's rapid deployment and counterattack capabilities, combat power preservation capabilities, social resilience support, the response of the civil defense system, the level of civilian defense will, and the government's immediate decision-making determine whether allies have reason to intervene and whether it is too late.

Third, this is not a safety guarantee

This is a military service operational guideline, not a treaty, and it does not change U.S. policy toward Taiwan. Whether Washington will send troops or not is ultimately a political decision made by the White House.

The US military is just ensuring that "when a conflict occurs, the United States has the option to intervene."

For Taiwan, the best situation is still to "let war never happen."

To avoid war, China needs to clearly understand that the chances of winning in an invasion of Taiwan are too low, the cost is too high, and the risks are too high to bear.

The US military is doing its homework, and Taiwan must also do its homework well. It is the most unwise approach to rely on the help of others for national security.