The changing of needles in the US shakes up the financial world

The magnitude of the Democratic victory in the United States is a complete change of political cycle: Pimco, the largest debt manager in the world, compares the result with that of 1974. Then, Americans, fed up with fuel prices and Richard Nixon (who had resigned months before and had been pardoned by his successor, Gerald Ford) inflicted a historic punishment on the Republican Party. The impact went beyond anticipating Jimmy Carter's victory two years later; Those elections paved the way for a broad legislative wave.

The market is still gauging the effect of these elections. The price of oil has been one of the indicators that has manifested itself most clearly. Analysts estimate that the probability of peace in the Middle East is higher today than on Monday. Even the vice president, J. D. Vance, has wanted to distance himself from the war in Iran, which he has blamed for the electoral setback. Within the Republican Party, where only adherence to the leader had been valid, officials are seeing that Donald Trump can be, in some aspects, a burden to his voters. If the president plans to attack Iran again, he will face opposition at home as well.

That doesn't mean I won't do it, or try. Maybe it's more dangerous now. That is why experts do not expect, in any case, that the energy market will return to the pre-war situation. As long as Trump is in command of the US armed forces, there will be a risk premium in the price of hydrocarbons. Even afterwards, too: if the conflict has shown anything, it is that the closure of narrow sea lanes is easier than previously calculated. In reality, the war has forced us to recalculate the entire fuel value chain, from investment in exploration to refining, including transportation.