It's the elephant in the room. A puddle that everyone tries to get around or for which it is preferable to wear boots to get wet. Pensions are one of the thorniest issues in every electoral campaign. More than nine million voters, 24.5% of the voters called to the polls on November 29. These benefits have taken over this week in the debate on housing. A respite for La Moncloa, since they are two issues that they consider are going well against the PP and, above all, because two weeks of pre-campaign have already passed with a more comfortable path, they say, than perhaps could be expected. «The PP had been planning for three years to have an electoral campaign where they would only talk about whether or not Sánchez should continue in Moncloa. And the truth is that last week we talked about housing and this week we are talking about pensions," members of the Executive congratulate.
Since Sánchez announced the electoral advance, there is a kind of wave of optimism installed in the engine room of La Moncloa and Ferraz. They argue this in internal tracking that, they say, they and Génova manage, which give increases to the PSOE and Vox but not to PP, which they would place lower. «There are many places where everything is on edge. There is an element that takes longer to perceive, but there is a feeling that we are going to go upwards," they point out from the dome. It remains to be seen what effect the resignation of Montse Mínguez may have, both electorally and politically, and how the socialists resituate their discourse on housing after this stone in the road. Although they do advance that the resignation of their former spokesperson serves to set the bar there and refute criticism.
In the Government, at the expense of the impact, they are satisfied because the debate on pensions has been taken over by the debate on housing, and Sánchez's team considers that it is a more favorable scenario for them than for the PP. "The framework has been relocated in the pre-campaign." Specifically, the analysis they make from the leader's hard core is that benefits are an issue that can mobilize votes, specifically in a mass of more than 9.5 million voters - who in 2023 were the least abstentionist, according to the CIS -, and that can also exert pressure for a change of vote among the undecided and those who once voted to the left. «Pensions are not touched, pensions are not a gift check, it is a social conquest achieved. So a little respect and commitment to the elderly," Sánchez explained yesterday at the event in Fuenlabrada.
The data shows that the Government welcomes the fact that the debate revolves around pensions, since it is among those over 65 years of age where Sánchez finds his main base of voters. Among retirees, 35.9%, according to the latest Sigma Dos survey for EL MUNDO, would choose the PSOE ballot today, 2.5 points behind those in this group who opt for the PP (38.4%). Thus, people of retirement age are the group that drives the two major parties: the socialists because it is the only group where they exceed their average voting intention (25.3%) and the PP because it is the age group in which Vox suffers (11.5%) and the popular ones clearly prevail. Hence, PSOE and PP have ended up monopolizing the clash over pensions, despite the fact that the controversy arose when a Vox leader recalled that their commitment is to a "mixed model."
«This campaign is going to be very marked by public services and that framework for the left is what mobilizes our electorate. But it is also the framework in which you can be more susceptible to changing your vote or not staying at home, because, even if you are a PP voter or even a Vox voter, you do not want your pensions to be cut," they reflect from the high socialist spheres. In La Moncloa and in Ferraz they consider that the statements of the PP and Vox on pensions give them fertile ground, because in addition to going with the card of being the Executive that has revalued pensions the most, linking them to the CPI, it allows them to reinforce this approach of a plebiscite of "rights or rights."
Against this, however, they revolt on the right: Vox believes that this, accusing the opposition of wanting to "cut rights", is the PSOE's argument to "divert the focus." On the conservative side of the political spectrum, they consider that the debate is now turning towards pensions because, in their opinion, controversies like Mínguez's question the socialist discourse on this. "One thing is happening to the PSOE: the center of their campaign was going to be housing, but it has been discovered that they were the vultures," said Vox spokesperson Pepa Millán, and the popular Ester Muñoz agreed with the diagnosis: "Since housing has not worked for them, they want us to be talking about something that everyone knows is guaranteed."
The truth is that the social mobilization for housing does not end up making Sánchez stand out among young people, those most affected by this problem, who in 2023 were one of his driving groups, but who now lean in a large proportion towards Vox. Meanwhile, among the population of retirement age, the PSOE does continue to find a niche of voters. This is not a trivial fact, since the strength of those over 65 years of age is increasing in the census: in the last decade, their weight among the electorate has increased by 12.7%.
