More than half of Spaniards observe the November 29 elections with concern. It is not a mere impression, there are studies about it. The sociologist Ignacio Urquizu, current general director of Metroscopia, explained it a few days ago on the Ser network. More than half of the voters of the Popular Party and Vox are convinced that the conservative bloc is going to win, but forty percent express concern. They are not sure. Concern predominates on the left, especially pronounced among voters who gave their vote to Sumar three years ago. There is reason. The embarrassing spectacle that the so-called 'left of the left' has given this week paints a sinister perspective. Even if the PSOE grows, even if it becomes the party with the most votes, a possibility that today cannot be ruled out, it may find a desert around it in Congress. The same will not happen in the Senate.
Concern on the left and concern also on a large segment of the right. Many people fear that their political affinity will lose in a decisive election. For some it is a matter of once and for all firing Pedro Sánchez, whom the right has distinguished with the great cross of abhorrence, to put it with the gentle irony of the writer Ignacio Peyró in a recent article in the newspaper El País (Peyró is the most elegant columnist in the conservative sphere). For others, it is about avoiding a government administered by the Popular Party under the strategic direction of Vox, which swerves sharply to the right and cuts the social state, giving cheers to Spain.
Let us remember that the PSOE, alone and lately in alliance with other left-wing groups, has governed more than half of the democratic period: 29 years and five months out of a total of 49 years and four months. The main matrix of Spanish democracy continues to be social democratic, with neoliberal touches, true; with powerful neoliberal strokes. We have had a clear example of this this week. By mistake or inexperience, perhaps because of both at the same time, the parliamentary spokesperson for the Popular Party, Ester Muñoz, dropped in a podcast that the Spanish pension system is “broken.” He was probably repeating what he heard the elders say at home. San Quentin was immediately set up.
The new Muñoz was forced to rectify and, in a late-night television program, the director of Ok Diario, Eduardo Inda, a loquacious right-winger, publicly rebuked the Popular Party: "Shut up, shut up, don't say anything about pensions, how can you think of that! Wait until you win, or rather, wait until you have formed a government, and then do what you have to do."
Inda's cynicism is nothing new, but the audacity of her message in the face of high-caliber elections never ceases to surprise. Once again it is demonstrated that there is not much discipline in the ideological bloc of the Spanish right. This is an ancient story; It has been like this many times. I can't imagine the director of a digital newspaper from the Italian conservative bloc putting Giorgia Meloni in trouble on television right now, when in that country there are just a few months left before legislative elections that are probably also going to be brought forward. They are very aware of Spain.
The outspoken Inda has put the PP in a bind in the first seconds of a Yugoslavian basketball game, one of those exciting matches that were not decided until the last minute, after many personal fouls, timeouts, agonizing triples and a big fight in the stands. Núñez Feijóo has had to ask for time to give guarantees to the electorate that the PP will not revise the pension system downwards and that it will update them according to the growth of the CPI. (The party's economic spokesman later clarified that this update will be carried out if the country's economic conditions allow it).
There is panic about this issue in Genoa. The electoral strength of the Popular Party currently lies in those over 55 years of age. That is their strongest age group. The PP cannot break the social democratic framework fifty days before the elections. Not even Vox can do it. Next week, Argentine President Javier Milei will travel to Madrid, invited by Santiago Abascal. It will be interesting to see in what terms the Argentine president expresses himself. I have the impression that we will see a slightly calmer Milei. Maybe I'm wrong. The image of the chainsaw is not of interest to the Spanish right today.
Abascal's party has been moving for months with true discipline, concentrating its artillery on Sánchez, focusing on Ceuta and immigration, without opening more fronts of ideological combat with the left. There is not so much talk about feminism, the star topic of the extreme right seven years ago. Vox tries to avoid the mistakes made in the July 2023 electoral campaign. Extreme caution in Catalonia, where they will try to capture a part of the potential electorate of Aliança Catalana, an independence organization that will not run in the Spanish general elections. (Nominally, AC is radically pro-independence, but more than 50% of its supporters are somewhat lukewarm about it; what attracts them most about the speech by Silvia Orriols, mayor of Ripoll, is the inflamed anti-immigration oratory and the visceral rejection of Muslims).
The main framework continues to be social democratic and, for this reason, the PSOE spokesperson, Montserrat Mínguez, a PSC activist, has been forced to resign after information emerged that her husband runs a real estate company with more than 30 apartments owned. It is not immoral to dedicate yourself to the real estate business (although immoralities are committed in that sector), but the Socialist Party has turned the Maricarmen case into the banner of its political recovery. When the PSOE raises bars, the first to fall are usually socialist cadres. It has already happened on previous occasions.
The resignation of Montse Mínguez is the price that the Socialist Party pays so that the Puerta del Sol camp does not turn against it. That camping trip is telluric. It has become a very sensitive node of the Spanish moment. The presidency of the Community of Madrid yesterday ordered the closure of the Sol station, where three metro lines and two commuter lines intersect, to antagonize metropolitan transport users with the young people camped in the square. The disciplined camp is not led by any political force represented in Parliament, it is worth remembering that fact. Its main animators, the Tenants' Union and the Socialist Youth Coordinator, are new bodies, totally unrelated to Podemos, the political formation that most claimed the legacy of 15-M.
As we approach November 29, the tension around Sol will increase. The unions Comisiones Obreras and UGT have called a general strike for November 11 to link union demands to the housing issue. The two unions, mainly Workers' Commissions, do not want to be overwhelmed by new social bodies, but the follow-up of this call is today an unknown. The campaign to discredit the scope of that protest has already begun in Madrid.
The main framework remains social democratic; Sol is a fuse, PSOE and Vox are the two parties that today set the pace of the political debate, the PP is having focus problems, the 'left of the left' has just put on an embarrassing spectacle, the surprise is the agreement of the left for the Senate, the reinterpretation of the CIS polls has become the new national sport, the hypothesis of a right-wing majority with 200 deputies is fading, and the feeling is imposed, on the left and right, that The general elections on November 29 will be the most important to have been held in this country for many years.
Second round of presidential elections in Brazil, legislative elections in Israel, midterm elections in the United States and general elections in Spain. This is the sequence of the next fifty days. We are on the front line. In all these elections, and in those that will come after (Italy, France and Poland in 2027), the future of America and Europe is decided. There is a lot at stake and society is realizing it.
There is a lot at stake and the 'left of the left', the great political novelty of the period 2015-2023, has just closed a meaningless week that will take its toll on them at the polls. This chronicle was closed at 0.45 a.m. in the early hours of Saturday, October 17. At midnight, the so-called Frente Amplio and Podemos had not managed to close an agreement to appear together throughout the country. There have been some agreements at the regional level, the most relevant of which refers to the Valencian Community, but there is no general agreement. The main reason for disagreement is the Madrid list. The first split of Podemos was registered in Madrid (Más Madrid was born in 2018 after the breakup between Pablo Iglesias and Íñigo Errejón), and in Madrid they will now face each other again. You always return to the scene of the crime. Splits on the left emanate toxic effects for many years.
Catalonia is a separate case. From Barcelona, Gabriel Rufián has deceived many for months to strengthen himself as an ERC candidate. With notable stage talent, he has made people believe that he could be the regrouping leader. One hundred and fifty-five silver coins and some copper pieces. With that symbolic capital, Rufián will go to the elections, saying that he did everything he could to unite the left.
Many people feel disappointed by this week's comedy and this could translate into a greater shift of useful votes in favor of the PSOE. Political spaces are not the property of anyone. In 2015, Podemos came close to overtaking the PSOE, but by 2008, the socialists had left Izquierda Unida with only two deputies in Congress. There are no spaces, there are dynamics.
Also at midnight it was learned that the PSOE and the Frente Amplio have reached an agreement to run together in the Senate in 40 provinces, under the name 'Senate of Progress'. With this unitary candidacy, the left could ensure control of the upper house in the next legislature, with the consequent impact on the renewal of the Constitutional Court and the General Council of the Judiciary. The agreement has been negotiated with great discretion and professionalism, in stark contrast to the pathetic discussion for the Congressional lists between the Frente Amplio and Podemos.
Let's take a good look at one feature of the situation. It's time for disciplined movements.
