El Niño, 49 million more people at risk of hunger by 2027

El Niño, a phenomenon of exceptional intensity expected

According to forecasts by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific could reach values up to 3.8 degrees above average between November 2026 and January 2027. The peak of the phenomenon is expected towards the end of the year, while the probability that it will continue until February 2027 is indicated as close to 100%. The effects will be different depending on the region: in Eastern Africa, higher than normal rainfall is expected, with an increased risk of flooding, while southern Africa could face new drought conditions, with consequences for crops.

Insufficient funds to address the food crisis

The new climate emergency risks worsening a situation already marked by the reduction of international aid. According to data reported by the 2026 Global Hunger Index, funding for food security and the effects of climate change in crisis contexts has fallen to the lowest levels since 2016-2017. In 2025, 44% of the global reduction in humanitarian assistance was concentrated in five countries: Yemen, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia, Afghanistan and South Sudan. A forecast analysis cited in the report also indicates that a sharp decline in development financing could result in 5.4 million additional deaths among children under five.

Somalia, over 870 thousand people risk losing their homes

Among the most vulnerable countries is Somalia, which records the highest score on the 2026 Global Hunger Index, equal to 47, and an undernourished population share of 56.5%. After a severe drought, the country must now prepare for the risk of floods. According to estimates by the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and the Danish Refugee Council, between October and December over 874 thousand people could be forced to leave their homes, in 92% of cases due to floods. However, IOM received only 14.4% of the $16.62 million needed for preparedness and response interventions.

Cesvi's appeal to COP31: intervene before emergencies

To limit the consequences of climate crises, Cesvi asks the governments gathered at COP31 to strengthen funding for so-called anticipatory action, which allows intervention based on weather forecasts before disasters occur. Possible measures include preventive evacuations, distribution of food supplies and cash transfers to families at risk.

«El Niño is the first major climate crisis that can be identified months in advance: we know where it will strike, in what period and how many people risk losing crops, homes and access to food», explains Stefano Piziali, general director of Cesvi. «And yet, the aid system continues to move when an emergency is declared, when the costs are higher, the damage greater and the consequences, especially for children, can be irreversible». The organization also requests multi-year funding and greater resources for the collection of data on hunger, which is essential for identifying the most exposed populations and planning interventions.