El Niño of 2026 could reach 4ºC above average and last until February 2027

An El Niño from another dimension. We are sailing in uncharted waters and those waters are warming. The UN metaphor is no coincidence. In this climate phenomenon, the winds that blow over the Pacific weaken. The ocean heats up and transfers more heat to the atmosphere.

In the 2015 El Niño, the surface temperature of the Pacific reached a record 3.1ºC above average. In August 2026, it was already at 2.6ºC. The World Meteorological Organization predicts the peak in November: 4ºC. And the phenomenon is still expected to last until February 2027.

Correspondent Bianca Rothier asked what impact it would have on our region. Celeste Saulo explained that the combination in the two oceans can change the climate, especially in South America. Risk of severe drought in the Amazon and the Northeast, and of new devastating storms in the South. Bianca Rothier also asked about economic costs. She pointed to impacts on agriculture and energy production, in a country where more than half of electricity comes from hydroelectric plants.

El Niño cannot be avoided. Some consequences, yes. Forecasts bring a precious advantage: time to protect the population. For the UN, it is a race against ever-increasing risks that we need to win.

Especially because this El Niño arrives in the midst of a climate emergency. On Wednesday (2), the United Nations Environment Program warned that the planet must exceed the limit of 1.5º of warming established by the historic Paris Agreement. And, at the current rate, reach 2.6ºC by 2100.

Every fraction more means more threats. Among them, for glaciers - as we saw last week. The Nepal government has blamed global warming and said 20,000 homes will need to be rebuilt.