Xi Jinping consolidates China's strategic turn in the Middle East after his visit to Egypt

With his recently completed three-day visit to Egypt, Xi Jinping has consolidated the strategic shift that China has been weaving in the Middle East. The Chinese president has closed the circle after four years without setting foot in the region, and has gone from being an actor whose influence rested fundamentally on the economy in 2022, to establishing himself as a diplomatic mediator in 2023 and 2024 and, finally, running as one of the architects of regional security this week. This evolution is consummating while the United States seems to be left behind - worn out by tensions with Iran and a lack of ideas - and with its regional influence visibly diminished. Xi's presence in Cairo openly extends the fight between the two superpowers in one of the most unstable scenarios on the planet.

The great message that Xi left in his meeting with the Egyptian leader, Abdel Fatah al Sisi, is that the Middle East must oppose external interference and be "master of its own affairs." The Chinese leader has proposed reconfiguring the regional security order by "strengthening dialogue", a position that aligns with the Global Security Initiative promoted by Beijing after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Through it, China defends that the security of one country should not be guaranteed at the expense of others and demands respect for territorial integrity and strict compliance with the United Nations Charter. Xi has taken this premise to the Middle East through Egypt, a key country for his strategy: Arab, African, Mediterranean, connected to the Red Sea and owner of the Suez Canal.

Cairo finds a fundamental partner in Washington, especially in military and security matters, since the US provides the North African nation with approximately 1.3 billion dollars (about 1.2 billion euros) annually. But Egypt has been diversifying its relations for years and China has become a first-class economic and technological partner. Beijing has invested heavily in the Suez Canal Economic Zone and in infrastructure, manufacturing and energy projects. It is not necessary for Al Sisi to distance himself from Donald Trump for Xi to gain influence. It is enough for Egypt to have Beijing as its second great partner. There is room for everyone.

Recent timeline of Chinese strategy

The Chinese bet in the Middle East has been brewing for years. In December 2022, during his visit to Saudi Arabia, Xi had already drawn the first lines of a relationship that went far beyond oil and infrastructure. At the first China-Arab summit, Beijing put development, energy, food security, technology and health projects on the table, but also military cooperation, maritime security, the fight against terrorism and cybersecurity. Xi was already talking then about building a "common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable" security architecture for the Middle East. The difference is that that proposal came wrapped in trade, investment and the expansion of the New Silk Road.

The next leap came just three months later. In March 2023, China sat down two historical rivals, Saudi Arabia and Iran, and facilitated the agreement that restored their diplomatic relations after seven years of rupture. Beijing did not need troops or become a military arbiter to assume a role that for decades had fallen primarily to Washington. Its advantage was in the good relations it maintained with both countries and in the shared economic interests. Furthermore, it did not have the same history of US military interventions in the region.

About a year later, China mediated again. As the Gaza war returned the Palestinian issue to the center of regional politics in 2024, Beijing hosted talks between Hamas, Fatah and other factions. Fourteen groups signed the Beijing Declaration to try to overcome their divisions and prepare a future unity government. The agreement failed to resolve the Palestinian fracture, but it once again showed that China went beyond selling, investing and buying oil, and that it was capable of bringing rivals around the table. Although behind this gesture there is also an interested premise: the more stability, the greater the commercial opportunities.

Xi's four points in Cairo

And now comes Egypt. Xi's four points - strengthening internal drivers, adopting an integrated approach, consolidating the foundations of development and strengthening international coordination - are the most political version of a strategy that Beijing has been building for years: for the Middle East to solve its problems with less dependence on external powers, address its conflicts jointly, link security and development and return weight to multilateralism. It is not yet a US-style defense promise, but an attempt to change the rules of regional security.