El Nino-driven heat projected to cause 15,800 deaths in India by end of February, report says

This year's powerful El Nino phenomenon, which is driving global heat to record levels and contributing to severe droughts, wildfires and water shortages, is likely to cause 15,800 deaths in India by the end of February, according to a research report released on Wednesday.

The warning, released by the University of Chicago-based Climate Impact Lab, said as many as 451,000 more deaths between June and February of next year could be attributed to El Nino, when compared to typical heat-related deaths in a year.

El Nino is a natural climate phenomenon that occurs every two to seven years, toward the end of the year. It comes in various strengths — depending on the prevailing conditions.

El Nino patterns are considered strong if the surface temperature of the water off the west coast of South America is over 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above average. In July this year, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) was already observing temperature increases of greater than 3 degrees Celsius in the eastern and central Pacific.

The Climate Impact Lab report said the powerful heat this year was most dangerous in places that are already hot and relatively poor. It projected that the Global South will see more heat-related deaths.

El Nino, regional wars fuel global food crisis

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What could help prevent deaths?

Heat warnings, hydration outreach, cooling centers and a plan to cope with the heat are all ways governments can help protect people, the report said, adding that they should also expand hospital capacity and chalk out anticipatory financing.

Abhiyant Tiwari, a heat expert at NRDC India who was not involved in the study, said the report's projections should serve as a call to action rather than be another reason for alarm.

But while it's one thing to have well thought-out plans — as India does — implementing these plans remains a challenge, he said.

"The real measure of our preparedness is not how many heat warnings we issue, but how effectively we protect people and reduce preventable deaths," Tiwari said.

Hello! and welcome to DW's India new blog.

This is Mahima Kapoor reporting from the national capital, where the mood is somber, even a little angry, over the recent incidents of alleged rape against minors and women.

A minor was reportedly gang-raped near a temple in southeast Delhi on Monday evening and the authorities have arrested at least one of the three accused. Today, a renowned women's college in the vicinity said it would switch to online classes to keep students safe.

Continuing on the somber front, a new report by the Climate Impact Lab said that El Nino-driven heat could kill over 450,000 people across the world by the end of February and that nearly 16,000 of those are projected to be from India.

Meanwhile, a controversy is brewing in the Election Commission of India. A report by the Indian Express said two of the three members of the Election Commission have, several times now, raised questions internally about the controversial revision of electoral rolls across India that struck 13 crore voter names from the list so far.

On the international front, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney revealed that New Delhi has confirmed a visit from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in December.

And India's foreign minister is currently in New York for the United Nations General Assembly, advocating for the Global South.

Stay tuned for all of this and more.