Climate change has altered rainfall patterns and made it difficult to predict climate behavior based on historical data. Current scenarios point to a climate increasingly different from that observed in the past.
Environmental engineer from Itapetininga (SP), Vinicius Mori Valio, master in Hydraulics and Sanitation from the University of São Paulo (USP), explains that climate-related studies used to be based on historical data series.
“Everything we had from previous data is no longer valid, because the scenarios show a climate that is increasingly uncontrolled and different from what we were used to.”
One of the changes can be observed in data from the Integrated Center for Agrometeorological Information (Ciiagro). The month of September this year was the wettest in the last ten years in the series analyzed.
Experts interviewed by TV TEM also point out that the spring of 2026, which began on September 22, is influenced by El Niño, a climate phenomenon characterized by the abnormal warming of surface waters in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean.
According to Lieutenant Ludmyla Alcântara, from the state Civil Defense, spring will be marked by climate instability and fluctuations in temperature.
"It will be a combination of heat, a heat wave with a cold front. Always the heat wave anticipated with the rain, or there are high accumulations, the storms, the gusts of wind. And we will stay like this until the end of the season", he said.
One of these changes in the landscape was recorded in Itapetininga, after the river that bears the same name as the city overflowed on September 20th. The water entered homes, ranches and farms, reaching more than 370 families.
According to measurements, the level of the Itapetininga River reached eight meters. The atypical scenario scared residents and experts.
To g1, Itapetininga City Hall reported, this Thursday (8), that the river level is gradually falling. According to the municipal administration, the last measurement, carried out at 6pm on Wednesday (7), showed a level of 4.22 meters.
Of the 15 areas affected by the flood, nine have already been released after the water returned to the river channel. Residents of these locations are authorized to access the properties and begin cleaning.
"In these places, the electricity has already been turned back on. Another six areas remain flooded, with no possibility of return at the moment. Humanitarian aid sent by the State's Civil Defense is being delivered to the affected families", says the note.
Municipal Civil Defense continues to monitor the affected areas 24 hours a day. In the event of an emergency, residents should call the Civil Defense on 199, the Municipal Guard on 153 or the Fire Department on 193.
For Vinicius, one of the existing solutions to face climate change is the organization of urban spaces.
"The way out to face these changes is in the hands of governments, which need to organize cities so that the effects are mitigated. Try to make cities more resilient, change the pattern of water flow, create more infiltration areas and reduce areas of surface runoff, to delay this water reaching water bodies", he points out.
Understand what El Niño is
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon caused by the abnormal warming of surface waters in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. This warming alters the circulation of the atmosphere and changes rainfall, temperature and wind patterns in various regions of the planet.
Although it happens in the Pacific, the effects end up spreading to different continents. This is why a change in sea temperature near Peru and Ecuador can influence the climate in Brazil, Asia, Africa and even North America.
Under normal conditions, so-called trade winds blow from east to west over the Pacific Ocean, pushing warm waters toward Indonesia and Australia. This movement favors the persistence of colder waters close to the coast of South America.
During El Niño, however, these winds weaken. As a result, warm waters move back to the Central and Eastern Pacific, causing changes in the atmosphere.
This change in atmospheric circulation interferes with the rainfall regime and temperatures in different regions of the world.
