El Niño changes the weather pattern and should bring more heat and storms to the Paraíba Valley, says Cemaden researcher

El Niño should cause changes in the weather in the coming months, with more frequent periods of heat, interspersed with rain showers and storms in the Paraíba Valley.

The forecast is from Giovanni Dolif, Meteorology researcher at the National Center for Natural Disaster Monitoring and Alerts (Cemaden). The phenomenon has already surpassed the "very strong" category and has an intensity of 2.5 degrees above average.

According to Dolif, it has already surpassed, in absolute values, all episodes recorded since 1950. In a comparison that takes into account the warming of the planet, it occupies second position, behind the 1997 El Niño.

The expectation is that it will surpass this mark in November, becoming the most intense since the beginning of the historical series.

Heat and storms are expected to mark the coming months

In Vale do Paraíba, September and October were marked by above-average rainfall, lower temperatures and high humidity.

Weather in São José dos Campos — Photo: Diógenes Moretto

Now, the tendency is for more hot periods, favoring rain showers in the late afternoon, accompanied by thunderstorms.

"So, the tendency now is for us to have more hot periods, more rain and thunderstorms in the late afternoon, and with that we will be alternating between very hot and heavy rains", explained the researcher.

Excessive rain increases concern about summer

Summer is the rainiest period of the year in Vale do Paraíba, North Coast, Serra da Mantiqueira and the Bragantina region. December, January and February concentrate most of the rain and also record occurrences such as landslides, stream overflows and flooding.

The concern this year is greater because September and October have already had above-average rain. According to Dolif, the rivers are fuller and the soil remains wet.

"When we get to summer, with this frequency of rain, the chance of these events happening is greater than it normally is", he warned.