The Social Democratic Party wins the elections in Sweden but the left and right bloc are almost tied

The Social Democratic Party has won the parliamentary elections held this Sunday in Sweden, but the left and right blocs obtain practically the same seats, according to the projection of public television with 50% of the vote counted. The formation led by former Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson would add around 27% of the votes and the center-left bloc would obtain 175 seats, just enough to achieve an absolute majority. The right-wing parties, after four years in power, would fall two seats and remain at 174.

Since the end of 2023, the polls gave the four opposition parties - the Social Democrats, the Greens, the Left and the Center Party - a comfortable advantage, but in the final stretch of the campaign the gap was reduced dramatically and two of the polls published on Friday predicted a technical tie.

Andersson, head of government between 2021 and 2022 and the first woman to hold the position in Sweden, lost power in the elections four years ago by a very narrow margin. Although the Social Democrats received the most votes - as has happened in every parliamentary election in the Scandinavian country since 1917 - the right-wing parties added 176 seats compared to 173 for the center-left bloc.

The conservatives, the Christian Democrats and the liberals formed a government coalition after reaching an agreement with the far-right Swedish Democrats, which despite not having been part of the Executive, has supported it in Parliament these four years. The ultras, led by Jimmie Akesson, stressed a few months ago that, if the right gained an absolute majority again, they would demand to enter the new Government. The prime minister, the conservative Ulf Kristersson, has shown himself willing to do so during the campaign and has even publicly offered them the Immigration portfolio.

After voting this Sunday in Nacka, on the outskirts of Stockholm, Andersson told the media that “it is now up to the Swedish people to decide what direction our country should take.” The 59-year-old social democratic leader then contrasted two possible future scenarios: "Should we have a government completely dominated by Sweden Democrats, something that has never happened before? Or should we have a government headed by me, which will lead Sweden towards a new spirit of cooperation?"

In a country where the 46 largest fortunes accumulate as much wealth as 75% of the population, according to Oxfam, Andersson has focused much of his campaign on raising taxes on banks and the highest incomes to reinforce the welfare state. During this mandate, the right-wing bloc has tightened immigration legislation until it becomes one of the strictest in the European Union. The social democratic leader has reiterated that she will maintain it if she governs again. However, neither The Left nor The Greens are in favor of continuing with such a harsh immigration policy.

The public television projection predicts a worse result for the Social Democrats than in 2022, when they obtained 30.3% of support. However, their likely partners (the centrists, The Left and The Greens) would obtain slightly greater support than four years ago.

In the right bloc, the conservatives would add a fifth of the votes and surpass the extreme right, which would fall from the 20.5% obtained in 2022 to 17.5%. The Christian Democrats and Liberals would achieve a better result than in the last elections, with around 6% of the votes. Until last week, all polls predicted that the Liberal Party would fall below the 4% threshold necessary to obtain parliamentary representation.

If the center-left bloc finally manages to win by the minimum, Andersson will face negotiations to form a Government that will last for several weeks, if not months. The Left has insisted during the campaign that it will demand to be part of the Executive, while the Center Party has already stressed that it will not support any coalition that includes post-communists.

The centrists, who in the past have been part of coalition governments with the conservatives, have also defended the possibility of including the Christian Democrats in the future Executive. Andersson, for her part, has maintained in recent weeks that she is willing to collaborate with all parties except the Swedish Democrats.

The far-right party, with neo-Nazi roots, had improved its results in each parliamentary election since Akesson became party leader in 2005. Until four years ago, the rest of the Swedish parliamentary forces had maintained a cordon sanitaire to the ultras.

If Andersson finally returns to head the Nordic country (of 10.6 million inhabitants) it will provide a boost of oxygen for European social democracy, at a time when, among the 27 members of the EU, only those of Spain, Denmark and Malta have a head of government from this political family.

The electoral campaign has been dominated by security and order - Sweden is the member of the Union with the highest rate of homicides by firearm -, immigration, measures against the inflationary crisis, health and education.

In some areas of the country, very long queues formed at voting centers. In Umea, one of the main cities in the north, some citizens had to wait more than three hours to cast their vote.

More than 3.6 million Swedes of the eight million called to the polls voted in advance, 30% more than in 2022 and a record number, according to the Electoral Authority. Postnord, the public postal service company, has alluded to this factor to justify the fact that in several places in Stockholm it has not been able to send early votes before the opening of the polls, which will delay the count.

The counting will not be completed until Wednesday, when the votes abroad and a part of the early voting are counted.