The Social Democratic Party has won the parliamentary elections held this Sunday in Sweden, according to exit polls. Polls by public television and the private channel TV4 give the party led by former Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson around 28% of the votes and grant the left bloc an absolute majority with around 51%. The right-wing parties, after four years in power, would obtain approximately 47% of support. Public television will broadcast a more precise projection at 9:30 p.m. (same time in mainland Spain).
Since the end of 2023, the polls gave the four opposition parties - the Social Democrats, the Greens, the Left and the Center Party - a comfortable advantage, but in the final stretch of the campaign the gap was reduced dramatically and two of the polls published on Friday predicted a technical tie.
Andersson, head of government between 2021 and 2022 and the first woman to hold the position in Sweden, lost power in the elections four years ago by a very narrow margin. Although the Social Democrats received the most votes - as has happened in every parliamentary election in the Scandinavian country since 1917 - the right-wing parties added 176 seats compared to 173 for the center-left bloc. Now, according to one of the polls, the difference would be nine in favor of the progressives.
The conservatives, the Christian Democrats and the liberals formed a government coalition after reaching an agreement with the far-right Swedish Democrats, which despite not having been part of the Executive, has supported it these four years in Parliament. The ultras, led by Jimmie Akesson, stressed a few months ago that, if the right gained an absolute majority again, they would demand to enter the new Government. The prime minister, the conservative Ulf Kristersson, has shown himself willing to do this during the campaign and has even publicly offered them the Immigration portfolio.
After voting this Sunday in Nacka, on the outskirts of Stockholm, Andersson told the media that “it is now up to the Swedish people to decide what direction our country should take.” The 59-year-old social democratic leader then contrasted two possible future scenarios: "Should we have a government completely dominated by Sweden Democrats, something that has never happened before? Or should we have a government headed by me, which will lead Sweden towards a new spirit of cooperation?"
In a country where the 46 largest fortunes accumulate as much wealth as 75% of the population, according to Oxfam, Andersson has focused much of his campaign on raising taxes on banks and the highest incomes to reinforce the welfare state. During this mandate, the right-wing bloc has tightened immigration legislation until it becomes one of the strictest in the European Union. The social democratic leader has reiterated that she will maintain them if she governs again.
Exit polls predict a slightly worse result for the Social Democrats than four years ago, when they obtained 30.3% of support. However, their likely partners (the centrists, The Left and The Greens) would obtain greater support than four years ago.
In the right bloc, on the other hand, all parties are declining according to the polls, except for the Christian Democrats, who would maintain a result very similar to that of 2022. Both the conservatives and the far right would lose around two percentage points and would be around 18% of the votes. However, the public television poll maintains the Swedish Democrats as the second largest parliamentary force, while the TV4 poll places the Conservatives slightly ahead.
If these estimates are confirmed, Andersson will face negotiations to form a Government that will last for several weeks, if not months. The Left has insisted during the campaign that it will demand to be part of the Executive, while the Center Party has already stressed that it will not support any coalition that includes post-communists.
