The PP and Vox start the campaign with a solid absolute majority and continue to draw voters out of abstention

The Popular Party starts the electoral campaign with a clear advantage over the PSOE and could comfortably govern alongside Vox after the general elections on November 29, according to the first installment of the daily tracking carried out by Sigma Dos for EL MUNDO and which will be published daily from today until Monday the 23rd, before the ban on publishing surveys in the five days prior to the elections comes into force.

The electoral race is, at the moment, very stable. Alberto Núñez Feijóo's PP enters the campaign with a voting intention of 30.8% and an estimate of between 126 and 132 seats. It leads the PSOE by more than five points, which falls to 25.3% and would achieve between 103 and 108 seats. Vox, for its part, climbs to 19.6% and would obtain between 63 and 70 seats. Thus, the conservative sum is consolidated at 50.4% of the vote with a range of between 189 and 202 deputies, well above the 176 necessary for the absolute majority.

The field work of the survey covers from November 3 to 11 and already includes the effect, among other things, of Santiago Abascal's interview in La Revuelta or the absence of Pedro Sánchez from the funeral for the victims of the Urda train accident. For this first delivery, the sample size is 3,870 interviews, to which another 750 interviews will be added each day.

Sigma Dos' tracking for EL MUNDO does not detect any hint of a comeback for Pedro Sánchez. The PSOE is hampered by very poor voter loyalty. Only 62.6% of those who voted socialist in 2023 would do so again, 7.9% would opt for the PP and 3.5% for Vox. In total, almost 900,000 votes that change blocks. In fact, more voters switch from PSOE to Vox than from PSOE to Frente Amplio and Podemos. Sánchez also suffers a vote drain of more than 10% towards nationalist and regionalist parties.

The weakness on his left ends up burying his options to reissue the presidency of the Government. The Frente Amplio continues to shrink and would remain at 7.3% and between 13 and 15 seats, counting on the general brand (5.8% and 9-10 deputies), the Canarian brand (0.4% and 1 deputy) and the Valencian brand (1.1% and 3-4 deputies). Podemos, for its part, would be relegated to an extra-parliamentary party with 1.4% voting intention and no representative.

In the rest of the arc, the 8-9 representatives that ERC would achieve in Catalonia stand out, ahead of the 6-7 that Junts would obtain. In the Basque Country, EH Bildu demolishes the PNV and would achieve between six and eight representatives, compared to the four or five that the Jeltzales currently aspire to.

In addition, the BNG would obtain two votes in Galicia and the Canarian Coalition has a seat at stake in Tenerife. The most powerful emergence is that of Adelante Andalucía, which would debut with 2% of voting intention and three or four representatives in Congress. Bad news for the PSOE in Andalusia, its traditional breadbasket.

The daily tracking estimates a participation of 76.7% and estimates that only 11.1% of voters remain undecided. And the increase in participation would benefit the right: 20.7% of those who did not vote on 23-J will now do so for Vox - it was 18.4% a week ago - 15.7% for the PP - growing from 13.4% - and 11.6% will vote for the PSOE - compared to the previous 13.5% -.