Senatorial elections: the stakes of the ballot and the expected progress of the National Rally

Polling stations closed at 5:30 p.m. in mainland France and results are expected throughout the evening.

Around thirty seats were nevertheless renewed at midday in the least populated departments, where the ballot is a two-round majority. Most of them are incumbents re-elected in the first round. This is particularly the case of two group leaders, Mathieu Darnaud (Les Républicains) in Ardèche and Claude Malhuret (Horizons) in Allier.

The right, a majority in the Senate with its centrist allies, has even won two seats at this stage... But the threat from the RN makes it fear losses in the largest departments, where the vote is proportional.

Buoyed by its gains in the last municipal elections, the National Rally is assured of progress in the Senate after the September 27 election. The whole challenge will be to be able to form a group, in order to complete the institutionalization of the party six months before the presidential election.

The RN already has three senators since the last elections to the upper house in 2023. It is therefore seven short of reaching the threshold allowing it to form a group.

His push for the municipal elections in March already guarantees him several seats: one in Bouches-du-Rhône, one in Var, undoubtedly another in Vaucluse and at least two in the Alpes-Maritimes with the UDR of his ally, Éric Ciotti.