
With 95% of the votes counted, the final result depends on special votes that will only be released in November.
AI-generated summary
New Zealand's electoral system uses the mixed proportional model, making coalitions the norm for forming governments. Special votes, which include voters abroad, are traditionally left-leaning.
The center-right National Party, which governs New Zealand, and the main opposition party, the Labor Party, are practically tied after the initial count of the general elections across the country, this Saturday (7).
With more than 95% of the votes counted, both parties are at just under 30% of the vote, with just a few thousand votes separating the two.
A projection by the New Zealand Electoral Commission showed the current three-party ruling coalition, led by the National Party, would have a two-seat majority, after an election dominated by a struggling economy and voter disillusionment with the two main contenders.
After the partial results were announced, both parties spoke. Current Prime Minister Christopher Luxon called the numbers encouraging when speaking to supporters in Auckland:
"It's encouraging to see that, from the numbers obtained so far, the National Party is once again the largest party in parliament, and we have a path to forming the next government. But I have to say that, even now, it is very difficult to predict the outcome."
Labor leader Chris Hipkins delivered a similar message in Upper Hutt, a town northeast of the capital Wellington. He said that "it may take a little more time" to understand what will happen in the government from now on.
Special votes, which have not yet been counted, include those from voters abroad or from people outside their electoral district. They will only be released on November 27th.
These votes generally favor the left, which can be crucial in electoral districts where the race between Labor and National Party candidates remains tight.
Understand the formation of government in New Zealand
In this election, the objective of left-wing parties, including Labor, is to make the coalition led by the National Party the first single-term government in just over 50 years.
New Zealand's electoral system makes coalitions the norm, and this year's tight contest means that one or more of the country's smaller parties will almost certainly join a governing coalition.
If the National Party-led coalition loses its majority in the official count, it or a left-wing coalition will need the support of the centrist Opportunity Party, which will likely enter parliament for the first time.
Opportunity Party leader Qiulae Wong said she would seek to negotiate with the party that won the most seats after the official results were released:
"We made this decision based on the fact that we need a majority of seats in parliament to form a government. So that's what we're going to stick to."
The country adopted a mixed proportional system in 1996, which means people vote for both the party and a candidate from their local constituency.
There are 71 electoral seats and at least 49 party seats, and a party or coalition needs a majority to form a government.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Special vote results announced on November 27th.
Very likely · Within weeks

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