Parliamentary newcomers Opportunity potential kingmakers in tight NZ election

This is where we'll end our live coverage of the New Zealand election.

Here are the key takeaways from tonight:

The two major parties, National and Labour, remain extremely close in votes

The final outcome will depend on the counting of special votes, which could still take several weeks

While the National party, ACT and NZ First currently have a majority of two seats, the National party has lost many of its most senior MPs

Government caretaker conventions will apply in the meantime, National leader Christopher Luxon said

The Greens came in as the third biggest party, their strongest parliamentary showing ever

We will continue our coverage of the New Zealand election on ABC News over the coming days and weeks.

Thank you for following along. Good night!

With more than 98 per cent of voting places counted, the final result of the New Zealand election is still up in the air, but National has been left bruised, losing some of its most senior and experienced MPs.

On current results, the right bloc — National, ACT and New Zealand First — have the most seats and would be in a position to form a government.

However, National's leadership would look very different with the loss of senior list-only National MPs such as deputy leader Nicola Willis, Minister of Justice Paul Goldsmith and Speaker Gerry Brownlee.

Minister for Transport Chris Bishop has conceded defeat in Hutt South and also misses out on a return to parliament.

National's current coalition partners, ACT and New Zealand First, both picked up support while the Greens had their strongest parliamentary showing in their history.

It's the third biggest party with 13.3 per cent.

Opportunity also had a strong showing — and is sitting on six per cent.

In terms of the party vote, National and Labour remain locked in a tight battle with only about 300 votes between them.

National is on 29.3 per cent and Labour 29.27 per cent.

Many results will hang on the estimated 700,000 special votes still to be counted.

New Zealand finds itself in a situation where the two major parties remain extremely close in the vote as 98 per cent of voting places are counted.

As it stands, Labour has fewer seats in parliament than National.

"On balance, it's ever so slightly more likely that we'll see Luxon Christopher Luxon return rather than Christopher Hipkins," ABC foreign affairs reporter Stephen Dziedzic said.

"The picture may look very, very different in just a couple of weeks when those special votes flow in."

The counting of special votes could still take several weeks.

The question now is whether Labour could cobble together a coalition that includes themselves, the Greens, Te Pāti Māori and Opportunity, said the ABC chief elections analyst Casey Briggs.

"It doesn't have to be a formal coalition with four parties all sitting around the cabinet table," Briggs said.

"That would be tricky, but there may be other arrangements on either side of the aisle that could work to do all of that. But we have got three weeks to go until we get some final figures here."

"Both parties believe they have a pathway to forming government. Neither major party is prepared to call it at this point, and there are going to be a lot of closed-door talks."

We've mentioned "overhang" seats quite a lot this evening.

They are the result of a political party winning more electorates than the seats they would be eligible for according to their general party vote, and are added to the total number of seats in parliament.

For example, if there were five overhang seats, the total number in parliament would be increased to 125 seats.

They are a quirk of the New Zealand political system that some parties have been seeking to take advantage of this election through the controversial strategy of encouraging supporters to "split" their vote.

It could see a bloc get more seats than it would be eligible for according to their party vote.

Both major party leaders criticised the strategy during the campaign, with National’s Christopher Luxon saying it could confuse people and lead to a Labour win, while Labour’s Chris Hipkins said he didn’t agree with “people trying to manipulate the electoral system”.

Left-bloc member Te Pāti Māori told supporters to give them their electorate vote in the Māori seats but give their party vote to other left-wing parties.

Meanwhile, the two right minor parties ACT and NZ First on the right, approved messaging telling supporters voting for National in their electorates not to give their bloc ally their party vote. National publicly opposed the strategy.

Some estimates indicated the push could see National get more than any party has had before.

And with National's party vote falling substantially while maintaining about the same number of electorate seats tonight, it looks like they are going to get quite a few overhangs.

Luxon concludes his speech by talking about how people have long come looking for the promise of New Zealand.

He says the promise is that "whatever your background, if you work hard in the best country on planet Earth, you should be able to get ahead".

"It is the promise of a New Zealand where our young people build their careers here instead of on the other side of the world. Where young New Zealanders can buy their first home. Where every child leaves school able to read, write and do maths and ready to chase their own dreams.

"It's a promise that where our regions are growing, our businesses are hiring and what we make and what we grow here is sold all around the world.

"It's where every New Zealander feels safe in their home, their street and their community."

He says the world is "certainly a lot more volatile and uncertain than it has been in a generation, and there is still a lot of hard work before us.

"But voyagers don't turn back when the seas get rough."

Luxon thanks the people of his electorate, Botany in East Auckland.

"Thank you for putting your trust in me again and I have to say, representing the community I grew up in is a great privilege. It is and always will be the best electorate in New Zealand."

He then proceeds to thank his family for their support.

"Amanda, I've always said that being your husband will always be my greatest achievement. And whatever the count, that doesn't change. I love you and I'm so grateful I get to do this life with you.

"To my children, William and Olivia. You've handled the demands of public life with real grace. Thank you for your patience, your encouragement, and your love. And I'm so proud of both of you."

A number of races are still too close to call, Luxon says.

"Some of the hardest phone calls tonight have been to colleagues and friends who look unlikely to make it back into parliament," he says, paying tribute particularly to deputy leader, Nicola Willis.

"I want to thank you, Nicola, for your dedication, for your determination and for your years of service to our party and this great country of ours."

He then congratulated New Zealand First leader David Seymour and ACT leader Winston Peters on their results.

"Making MMP work is not easy, but over the past three years we have shown that parties with very different views can come together."

Luxon shut down a supporter who yelled "no!" when he congratulated Opportunity on likely joining parliament for the first time.

"No, no, we don't do that here. That's not the Kiwi way," he said.

Christopher Luxon has acknowledged that forming New Zealand's next government is likely to take some negotiation.

Ministers will remain in their portfolios while the Electoral Commission finishes the vote count.

"With those final results there can then be meaningful negotiations and in due course a new government and the 55th Parliament will come together," Mr Luxon said.

"And negotiations and compromises are going to be required. And that is exactly as the architects of MMP always intended to happen."

NZ Prime Minister and National leader Christopher Luxon is addressing a spirited crowd of supporters in Auckland.

"New Zealand has voted and it looks like certainly an MMP special," he said, referring to its Mixed Member Proportional system.

"It is heartening to see that, on the numbers so far, National has once again the largest party in parliament.

"And we have a pathway to form the next government."

The National-ACT-NZ First bloc is holding onto a majority by two seats as 95 per cent of voting places are now counted.

Here's the full breakdown:

National party: 29.31 per cent

Labour party: 29.19 per cent

Green party: 13.30 per cent

ACT: 10.99 per cent

NZ First: 9.81 per cent

Te Pāti Māori: 0.57 per cent

A new government may not form before Christmas, said Tom Jamieson, a senior lecturer in political science at Victoria University of Wellington.

"I think we'd be pushing it to do anything before [then] in terms of having a coalition formed," he said.

"It'll be only probably until in three weeks' time when the official results are announced and all special votes are counted that we would know the exact balance of power," he told the ABC.

But for now, he said it was likely that National would be in a better position to form a government.

"With the way that things sit at the moment, Labour would have to win a few of the marginal electorate seats to pull back some of the overhang that National has.

"And even then, the Opportunity party looks like they're going to secure entry into parliament and they made it clear that they would work first with the party with the most seats, which is almost certainly National at this point."

He said it was likely National's Christopher Luxon would go back on his word and make a deal with Opportunity.

However, National looked likely to lose some of their top-ranking ministers, including Nicola Willis, Chris Bishop and Paul Goldsmith, each of whom hold multiple portfolios.

"They're going to lose a lot of cabinet experience," he said.

"So even if they're able to form a coalition, there'll be big holes to fill for the National caucus."

Christopher Luxon is hoping to avoid a place in New Zealand history as the first National Party prime minister not to win a second term.

Kiwi voters tend to give governments more than one term. The last time they didn't was just over 50 years ago, in 1975, the year North Vietnamese forces captured Saigon, Papua New Guinea gained independence from Australia and Bill Gates co-founded Microsoft.

Polls have indicated it's far from certain Luxon will get a second term.

National leader Christopher Luxon is expected to arrive at the party's election night headquarters at the Viaduct Events Centre in Auckland shortly.

Te Pāti Māori co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer believes the party could work with Opportunity in a coalition government.

Debbie Ngarewa-Packer held off her Labour challenger in Te Tai Hauāuru electorate, but told supporters in Hāwera they would have to wait to see how the cards fell to see if the party had achieved its ultimate goal of changing the government.

"We went into this with one objective, which was to get this government out, and I'm hoping that's the way the cards are going to fall."

That could mean working with likely newcomers, Opportunity.

"We've just got to keep remembering that the prime minister of this last government said that he wouldn't work with Opportunity.

"I think there's an ability for all four of us [Te Pāti Māori, Labour, the Green Party and Opportunity] to work together."

We are reaching the pointy end as 92 per cent of voting places have now been counted.

National, ACT and NZ first are currently looking to get 67 of 130 seats, which sees their majority dropped from three to two.

Here's the current breakdown of votes:

National - 29.3 percent

Labour - 29.1 percent

Greens - 13.3 percent

ACT - 11 percent

NZ First - 9.8 percent

Opportunity - 5.9 percent

Te Pāti Māori - 0.6 percent

We asked young Kiwis who have relocated to Australia as adults who they voted for in this election and why.

Kerry Wong, Melbourne

"I voted for the Green party because I felt their policies aligned with my values. The policies that I felt were important were relating to global warming, taxing wealth not work, and their socialism-related policies in terms of making the cost of living more affordable for everyone in the country, as well as making health care more accessible for everyone.

"I'm a proud New Zealander and I care about my country very much, and I will eventually move back. The reason I decided to move to Australia was because the cost of living had increased and the unemployment rate had gone up and I struggled to find work."

Jess MacDonald, Melbourne

"I voted for the Greens. Issues that mattered to me the most were cost of living, employment opportunities, which is part of the reason why I'm in Australia, as well as access to health care.

"It's been very challenging accessing services in New Zealand which are much more freely available in Australia. I've definitely noticed that family members there, elderly family members, are having a lot of difficulty accessing high-quality services due to a serious lack of staffing in hospitals and also GP access.

"I feel very connected to New Zealand I would love to live there, but there's just not a lot of opportunities for me there workwise. Even as a