Live: Parliamentary newcomers Opportunity potential kingmakers in tight NZ election

Just over 80 per cent of votes counted!

By Nelli Saarinen

The race remains close with 81.8 per cent of votes counted.

National is again leading in the party vote, but only by a hair.

It currently holds 29.4 per cent of the party vote, while Labour holds 29.06 per cent.

National, ACT and NZ First have reached 68 of 131 seats — a majority of three, according to the New Zealand election office.

Debate around treaty principles bill encouraged Māori voters

By Claire Campbell

ABC journalist Johnson Raela tells News Channel a large number of Māori voters are currently living in Australia — and many of them are talking about the treaty principles bill.

He said there were more Māori voters enrolled to vote in this election than ever before.

"Interestingly, when I went to vote on Wednesday, there were a lot of Māori standing outside on Flinders Street here in Melbourne standing up to vote.

"And a lot of the discussions that they had is … about the treaty principles bill."

The Principles of the Treaty of Waitangi Bill has been a major topic of debate this election.

The Treaty of Waitangi was signed by representatives of the Crown and more than 500 Māori chiefs when New Zealand became a British colony in 1840, and has become central to enshrining Māori rights in law.

What is the 'purple vote'?

By Will Jackson

In Australia, in recent years, we have talked about the rise of independent candidates.

In New Zealand, they have the same phenomenon but talk about the shrinking "purple vote".

It's the falling vote for the combined major parties — the National Party (blue) and Labour Party (red).

New Zealand makes Rugby League World Cup final

By Claire Campbell

Now, we know that sport is also deeply political for many, so there may be some other results you care about.

New Zealand has made the women's Rugby League World Cup final for the seventh consecutive time after beating Fetu Samoa 32-0.

New Zealand will now face the winner of the Australia v Fiji match in Sydney on Sunday.

The men's team is playing against Tonga tonight.

A strong night for NZ First

By Will Jackson

One of the big movers in the current vote count is right-bloc member New Zealand First.

In 2023 they got 6.08 per cent of the vote; currently they are sitting on 9.71 per cent.

If that number holds — and the current vote count is only a little under 70 per cent — then the party will get in around 12 people.

Waiting for 'the next prime minister'

By Nelli Saarinen

Labour has delayed its first supporter bus, which was due to leave at 8pm AEDT, until 8:30pm AEDT.

"While we wait for the next prime minister to get here."

Rachel Helyer-Donaldson, RNZ reporter

Opportunity policies run in 'opposite direction' to Coalition, analyst says

By Nelli Saarinen

Opportunity has, for the first time, reached the 5 per cent threshold of votes to break through to parliament, which entitles it to seven seats.

With the party neither part of the traditional left nor right bloc, there has been speculation about what it would do in government and which major party it may side with.

"In terms of cost of living and in terms of tax policy, as far as I can gather, the Opportunity party's policy is one which is very much going against the grain of the current government's party," political scientist Jeremy Walker told ABC News.

Opportunity's proposed land tax in urban areas is "very much against the very pro-landlord policies that the current government has done," Walker says.

"[It is] a policy aimed at reducing the sort of kind of polarisation of owners versus renters that we've seen in Australia as well in many other countries."

In many other areas, the coalition led by the National Party has led a "radical austerity program", Walker says.

"There's been major cuts in the public services, in the universities, in the health system, which have added to unemployment.

Wages are not keeping up with inflation. There's large numbers of people leaving the country. There's been mining in national parks, environmental laws have been under undermined, particularly in fisheries and climate policy and so on.

"I think it would be very difficult for the Opportunity party to form a coalition [with National], given that nearly all of their policies are running in directly the opposite direction."

Latest voting results

By Nelli Saarinen

Currently the results sit at:

National 29.5 per cent, 41 seats

Labour 29 per cent, 35 seats

Greens 13.5 per cent, 16 seats

ACT 11.0 per cent, 13 seats

NZ First 9.8 per cent, 12 seats

Opportunity 5.8 per cent, seven seats

Te Pāti Māori 0.6 per cent, 5 seats

Could National end up working with Opportunity?

By Stephen Dziedzic in Auckland

If National falls short of a majority with its current coalition partners, attention will immediately switch to the politician who has drawn the most international press attention in this election: Qiulae Wong.

Christopher Luxon has vowed repeatedly that he won’t work with the leader of Opportunity, because he believes her tax policies would be disastrous for the country.

But it’s plausible National’s only realistic path back to power will be by cobbling together a coalition that includes Opportunity.

Some National MPs are already suggesting the prime minister should be willing to back down.

Māori diaspora vote for better language rights

By Nelli Saarinen

In the leafy Gold Coast suburb of Nerang, the outdoor eating area of a small Kiwi bakery is packed on Saturday afternoon.

Hinemaire Hona and Keita Heke say Māori language rights and a lack of respect for New Zealand's indigenous culture are some of the main issues influencing their vote in this election.

"The most important (election issue) was keeping our language," Hona says.

Amanda Luxon speaks to NZ reporters

By Doug Dingwall

New Zealand reporters spoke to Amanda Luxon earlier, asking how her husband Christopher was doing as the results are counted.

"Look, I think … you just need to sit and wait for the results to come in. I think it's a bit silly to anticipate anything," she said.

Opportunity likely to reach parliament, Wong fourth for her seat

By Nelli Saarinen and Casey Briggs

It looks likely that Opportunity will reach the 5 per cent threshold of votes to make it into the New Zealand parliament for the first time.

Who are the potential 'kingmakers' this election?

By Doug Dingwall

If it turns out neither National nor Labour wins enough seats to form government by themselves, as polls have indicated, then it will be smaller parties that emerge as the potential "kingmakers", giving them the numbers in parliament.

Opportunity leader says party likely to 'make history'

By Eve Cogan and Will Jackson

Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong has spoken to supporters at the party's election event.

"It is looking very likely that after a decade, the Opportunity party is going to make history tonight," she said.

Labour takes lead in a race that continues to be close

By Nelli Saarinen

The votes that have come through in the last couple of hours show a shift toward Labour, says ABC chief elections analyst Casey Briggs.

How NZ First and ACT are tracking

By Doug Dingwall

Christopher Luxon's chances of forming the next government rely partly on the fortunes of National's coalition partners from the last parliamentary term, New Zealand First and ACT NZ.

How the Māori Party's 'vote splitting' strategy is going

By Will Jackson

As expected, Te Pāti Māori (the Māori Party) are doing much better on the electorate vote than in the general vote.

Opportunity party resembles teals, former NZ attorney-general says

By Eve Cogan and Doug Dingwall

New Zealand's former attorney-general Chris Finlayson tells the ABC that the Opportunity party, which could emerge tonight as "kingmakers", in many ways resembles the teal independents in Australia.

How do NZ’s Māori electorates work?

By Will Jackson

Overlaying New Zealand's map are seven Māori electorates.