Voters cite expectations of worsening economy after Lula's re-election, says Quaest

Brazilians' expectations about the economic situation worsened after the re-election of President Lula (PT), according to a Quaest survey commissioned by the newspaper O Globo and released this Sunday (8).

According to the survey, 39% of voters think that the country's economy will improve in the next 12 months, and the same share believes that it will get worse. Another 19% expect it to stay as is.

This is the first tie between optimists and pessimists in the institute's series throughout the PT member's third term. In August, the period before the election, 46% expected improvement and 24% expected worsening — a year ago, the percentages were 42% and 35%.

Quaest carried out 2,004 face-to-face interviews with voters aged 16 and over, from October 30th to November 2nd. The survey's margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points.

Expectations worsened in relation to 2022, since in December of that year, when Lula had just defeated Jair Bolsonaro (PL), 47% of those interviewed expected improvement and 29%, worse.

Pessimism is concentrated among the richest, most educated and residents of the southern region of the country. Among voters with a family income above five minimum wages, 49% expect things to get worse and 30% expect things to get better. In August, the share of pessimists among the richest was 30%.

In the South, 58% think the economy will get worse, compared to 24% who expect it to improve. Among those with higher education, the ratio is 46% to 31%, respectively.

Among the poorest, the scenario is the opposite, with 48% of respondents who receive up to two minimum wages projecting an improvement in the economy and 29%, a worsening. In the Northeast, it is 50% to 25%. Among young people aged 16 to 34, pessimists are the majority (41% to 34%); among those aged 60 or over, optimism prevails (43% to 29%).

As expected, the political profile influences the vision adopted by each of the interviewees: among Lulistas, 79% expect improvement and 2%, worse. Among Bolsonarists, 84% predict a worsening — from 38% in August.

On the non-Bolsonarist right, the share went from 42% to 80%. Independents remained stable, with 35% expecting improvement and 30% expecting worsening.

The economy is also the topic that most worries those who see the future with apprehension. According to the survey, 48% of voters say they are more concerned than optimistic about the country's future, and 44% are more optimistic. In December 2022, they were 54% and 41%.

Among those concerned, 27% point to the economy, spending and public debt and interest as the main reason, ahead of public security (17%), corruption (12%) and relationship with the National Congress (12%). In the income range above five minimum wages, the rate reaches 30%.

Among optimists, the economy has little weight, with only 6% pointing to economy, growth and infrastructure as what brings the most hope in the new government. They lead the defense of democracy and the fight against Bolsonarism (20%), social programs (17%) and the regulation of bets and social networks (16%).

Despite the apprehension, the most demanded campaign promises are economic and labor. The end of the 6x1 schedule — six days of work for one day of rest — is highlighted as a priority by 17%. Next come the tax exemption on the basic food basket (16%) and the increase in the minimum wage (11%).