The right-wing candidate collects 53% of the valid votes in the first poll ahead of the run-off on October 25th
AI-generated summary
Brazil is heading towards the presidential run-off scheduled for October 25 between Flavio Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
The right-wing candidate for the presidency of Brazil, Flavio Bolsonaro, collects 53% of the valid votes in the first poll in view of the run-off on 25 October against the outgoing left-wing president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who instead stands at 47% of the preferences. This is what emerges from the latest survey by the PoderData institute.
The supporters
The eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro has meanwhile obtained the support of the conservative parties Republicanos and Novo. In recent days he had also received the endorsement of former presidential candidate Ronaldo Caiado, leader of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), who in the first round had obtained 2.6 million votes, equal to approximately 2.18%, coming fifth. While it remains unknown where the votes cast by supporters of the writer Augusto Cury will be channeled, who finished the first round in third place with 2.89% of the vote, obtaining the support of 3.4 million Brazilians.
The political program
In any case, Bolsonaro Jr. has already gathered the support of almost the entire 'Centrão' in just a few days, a bloc of centrist parties that often determines the outcome of congressional votes. The senator from the Liberal Party, who ended last Sunday's first round in the lead with almost 47% of the votes, has also declared his intention to promote constitutional amendments aimed at modifying the functioning of the judiciary, eliminating presidential re-election, lowering the age of criminal responsibility and reviewing some aspects of the tax reform supported by Lula.
The most controversial point is his proposal to change the judicial system. Bolsonaro Jr. criticizes the current functioning of the Supreme Court, arguing that Brazil is not experiencing a period of "full" democracy and proposing greater institutional oversight of the country's highest court.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Presidential runoff between Flavio Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Very likely · Within weeks
The opposition will appeal to the Constitutional Court against the "Stabilicum" approved in the Chamber. The initiative, supported by jurists and citizens, challenges five critical points of the electoral reform wanted by Giorgia Meloni.

Exchange of accusations and denunciations between the candidates for the presidency of Brazil, Flávio Bolsonaro and Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, a few days before the ballot on October 25th.

The reform of the electoral law introduces permanent non-resident voting for those who live far from the municipality of residence for study, work or treatment, after the experiments of the 2024 European elections and the 2025 referendum. The law, born from an FdI amendment and approved unanimously in the Chamber, allows voting in the municipality of temporary residence if the stay is at least nine months for study/work or three months for treatment or assistance. The vote is valid for political elections, European elections and referendums, but not for local elections. The application must be submitted by December 31st for the following year or within 30 days of meeting the requirements, with a limit of the 45th day before the vote.

Brazilian senator Flávio Bolsonaro criticized Supreme Court judge Alexandre de Moraes after the arrest warrant for his brother Eduardo, convicted of attempting to influence the trial against former president Jair Bolsonaro, calling the measure ineffective and calling for the magistrate's resignation.

Self-help writer Augusto Cury, candidate of the centrist Avante party in the Brazilian presidential election with 2.89% in the first round, has announced his support for right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro in the October 25 runoff against Lula, conditional on eight commitments including abolishing re-election, strengthening healthcare and fighting corruption.

The Chamber definitively approved the new electoral law with 227 votes in favor and 164 against, by secret vote. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni underlined the unity of the centre-right, while the opposition protested and announced appeals to the Consulta. The contents of the reform were described, including the 'Stabilicum' governability bonus, the return of preferences and the out-of-office vote for caregivers.