Midterm elections are held halfway through each presidential term, and are widely considered a 'thermometer' of voters' satisfaction with the policies of the incumbent of the White House. Historically, this is a difficult appointment for the president in office, even if the defeat suffered by Trump in 2026 appears - while the counting is still underway - rather marked.
To give an idea of how much voters have turned their backs on Donald Trump, it is useful to observe the data cited by the New York Times: where vote counting is almost finished, preferences have shifted towards the Democratic Party by around 16 percentage points at a national level. This is a much larger movement than that of 2024 - by 5 points in favor of the Republicans - which brought Donald Trump back to the White House. And it is even more marked in traditionally 'red' states such as Tennessee and Kentucky, where the Dems improved their performance by 18 percentage points.
"My message is: congratulations to the Democrats, we look forward to working with you," commented Donald Trump, also assuring that he would accept the results of the vote. The president followed the counting from the East Room of the White House, and while the counting of votes was underway but it was already clear that it would be a bad evening for the Republicans, the president expressed his frustration on X: "If my name had been on the ballot I would have won by a landslide". Then he softened his tone, complimenting the Dems for how they fought and extending his hand to them. "We look forward to working with you," he said, assuring that he will not make any changes within his administration after a defeat that "has nothing to do with the government" and which - he admitted - is partly responsible for the war in Iran.
The defeat for Trump appears even more evident if we consider that the candidates personally chosen by the president suffered heavy defeats: Darline Graham in South Carolina was overtaken by Anni Andrews, and Ken Paxton lost in Texas against James Taralico, the first Dem to be elected to the Senate in the state since 1988. In Texas, a stronghold of the Republicans, the conservative governor Greg Abbott also lost against the Democrat Gina Hinojosa.
And the defeats for Trump's party don't stop here: the Democrats also conquered Kansas - a traditional Republican state - by electing Adam Hamilton, the first Dem since 1932. They also achieved an important success in Maine, where Troy Jackson beat the Republican veteran Susan Collins. In Georgia, Senator Jon Ossoff was reconfirmed and can look forward to the 2028 presidential election with optimism if he decides to run.
Now that the Democrats have gained control of the entire Congress, as mentioned, Donald Trump's political life will become significantly more difficult. Although one point must be clarified immediately: unlike the Italian system, in the US system the government is not bound by a relationship of trust with Parliament. Trump therefore remains in office for the remainder of his mandate, which will end in January 2029, keeping all the prerogatives of the executive power intact.
However, what will change significantly will be both his ability to get new laws approved and to choose names close to him in the appointments of figures who must be confirmed by the Senate. In short, Trump will now be forced to negotiate essentially all the most important political choices with Democrats, to obtain the green light from a Parliament hostile to him. Even if the White House retains the power of veto, that is, the possibility for the president in office to block a law passed by Congress that he does not like.
With Trump 'crippled' and the Democrats in control of Congress, the race for the 2028 presidential elections will open almost immediately. They will be the first since 2012 in which the tycoon will not lead the Republicans, and the large defeat suffered in these midterms could weigh on the chances of candidates close to him obtaining the party's nomination for the White House. Finally, the victory also opens up an internal issue for the Democrats, in particular the coexistence between its two moderate and progressive souls.
