5 scenarios for the lowest pension: How much will the increased pensions be?

With the announcement of TÜİK's September inflation data, the calculations for the raise that retirees will receive in January have been updated. While three-month inflation reached 5.57 percent in the second half of the year, six-month inflation is expected to be between 8.70 percent and 10.73 percent, according to year-end forecasts.

THREE-MONTH INFLATION WAS 5.57 PERCENT

According to the data announced by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK), the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 1.84 percent monthly in September. While annual inflation was 29.73 percent, CPI increased by 24.32 percent compared to December and 31.49 percent according to 12-month averages.

With the monthly inflation rates announced as 1.78 percent in July, 1.84 percent in August and 1.84 percent in September, the three-month inflation in the second half of the year increased to 5.57 percent.

The January raise for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees will be calculated according to the six-month inflation in the second half of the year. For this reason, inflation data to be announced in October, November and December will be effective in determining the increase rate.

5 DIFFERENT CALCULATIONS FOR THE LOWEST RETIREMENT SALARY

Year-end inflation forecasts reveal five different scenarios regarding the rate hikes that may come to the fore in January. According to calculations based on the Central Bank, Medium Term Program and various economic expectation surveys, six-month inflation is expected to be between 8.70 percent and 10.73 percent.

CENTRAL BANK FORECAST

In the scenario in which the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey increases its year-end inflation expectation to 28 percent, six-month inflation is expected to be 8.70 percent.

MEDIUM TERM PROGRAM SCENARIO

In the Medium Term Program, 2026 year-end inflation is predicted to be 28.4 percent. According to this estimate, six-month inflation is calculated to be 9.04 percent.

EXPECTATIONS OF MARKET PARTICIPANTS

In the Central Bank's Market Participants Survey, year-end inflation expectation increased to 29.61 percent. In line with this forecast, six-month inflation is expected to be approximately 10.06 percent.

AA FINANCE SURVEY

The average year-end inflation forecast of economists participating in AA Finance's expectation survey was 29.66 percent. In this scenario, six-month inflation is calculated to reach 10.11 percent.

ASSOCIATION OF FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS FORECAST

In the Financial Institutions Association's Economic Outlook Index research, year-end inflation expectation was determined as 30.39 percent. According to this estimate, six-month inflation is expected to be 10.73 percent.

HOW MUCH WILL BE THE LOWEST PENSION PENSION OF 23 THOUSAND 552 TL?

According to the calculations made based on the current minimum pension of 23 thousand 552 TL, if the predictions come true, the monthly amount may vary between approximately 25 thousand 600 TL and 26 thousand 100 TL.

THREE MONTHS' DATA IS EXPECTED FOR THE EXACT INCREASE RATE

The raise rate retirees will receive in January will become clear with the release of inflation data for October, November and December. Current calculations consist of scenarios based on year-end inflation forecasts and do not show the final increase rate.