Ipsos survey for La Vanguardia: Aliança Catalana and Vox lead in voting intention for the Catalan elections

One in three Catalans who are going to vote in the next parliamentary elections will do so for a far-right party if the survey carried out by the Ipsos Institute for La Vanguardia is confirmed. The growing trend of recent years is being consolidated in an enormous way and leaves the Catalan Chamber in a situation of absolute ungovernability. Aliança Catalana already came close to Junts and Esquerra in the previous survey in September 2025, but now it not only surpasses them, but also ties in seats (30) with the socialists in first position. And Vox grows to 18 deputies at the expense of a PP that remains at 11. In the elections two years ago, the popular party had defeated Vox by four deputies, so in just two years Santiago Abascal's party has gained 11 seats from the PP.

This is the panorama. The same one that is repeated in Germany, France, Italy or Great Britain. The extreme right seduces the middle classes who feel abandoned by the traditional parties. Thus, the PSC loses 12 deputies of the 42 it obtained in the 2024 elections, and Junts, a total of 19 seats compared to the 35 it obtained. These are two very striking results. The electorate punishes both those who are in the Government and those who are in the opposition. Esquerra is saved and is the only one of the three large Catalan parties that improves results, winning three seats.

While Junts plummets to fifth position – even Vox surpasses it –, Aliança would be the first party in Girona and Lleida. Sílvia Orriols' formation steals voters from all parties. It absorbs from 29.8% of former Junts voters to 12.3% of Esquerra and 8.2% of the PSC. It is a phenomenon of the new times. A party that barely has an establishment, bases or cadres has been able to capitalize for its own benefit on the social unrest that exists in public opinion for very diverse reasons. The same can be said of Vox.

It is a survey that gives food for thought about the future that lies ahead for Catalonia, but also for Spain, now that Pedro Sánchez is plucking the leaves of bringing forward the elections. Alert to what is coming.