The energy transition is becoming more and more expensive and electricity grid connections are becoming increasingly difficult to obtain. But both could be changed. This is shown by a study available to Handelsblatt.
Distribution network operators could save almost a quarter of their expenditure of around 250 billion euros by 2045, which corresponds to around 66 billion euros. This is shown by a study by Agora Energiewende, FfE and Consentec.
The study recommends greater digitalization and new rules for network operators. According to the study, a lot has to change in the long term, especially in terms of electricity demand.
Dusseldorf. Of the approximately 250 billion euros that distribution network operators will have to spend under conventional conditions by 2045, almost a quarter could be saved. This is the result of a study by the think tank Agora Energiewende in cooperation with the Research Center for Energy Economics (FfE) and the consultancy Consentec. The study was available to Handelsblatt before publication.
The authors evaluated in detail which advances in power grid expansion would save how much money. The result: around 66 billion euros could be saved.
The study thus addresses one of the most important energy policy issues at the moment: On October 31st, the distribution network operators must publish their new network expansion plans. The plans have a particular political impact because the massive expansion of the electricity grid as part of the energy transition results in high costs for all electricity consumers.
At the same time, the expansion seems urgently necessary because the power grid is already reaching its limits. More and more solar parks, battery storage operators and industrial companies are waiting in vain for a grid connection. A number of measures could help. Two changes in particular play a significant role in the possible savings potential.
A significant change is about ensuring that the share of renewable energy in German electricity generation can continue to increase. This should make it possible for more power generators to be connected to the grid.
There are currently many more wind and solar projects planned than the power grid can accommodate. According to the company, renewable energy projects with a total output of 110 gigawatts have applied for grid connections to Edis, one of the largest German distribution network operators. That would correspond to 110 large conventional power plants.
However, the maximum electricity demand load in the Edis network area is just 2.3 gigawatts. Nevertheless, it would not be enough to connect 2.3 gigawatts of wind turbines and solar systems to supply all electricity customers. Although systems like these feed a lot of electricity into the grid during windy or sunny times, they sometimes only feed very little when the weather conditions are unfavorable.
According to the Agora study, network operators should make better use of exactly this effect: The study authors recommend connecting more generation output to a power grid connection than the grid can actually absorb. Most of the time, solar and wind systems would not be feeding in their peak output anyway. In the rare situations in which this would be the case, the systems would then have to be throttled back.
According to the study, such a development would require network operators to expand 59 percent less in the medium-voltage level and 31 percent less in the high-voltage level by 2030.
However, the power grid is not only too small for all the new solar and wind systems. Concepts such as overbuilding could even temporarily reduce the problem. Mareike Herrndorff, electricity project manager at Agora Energiewende, says: “Above all, measures on the feed-in side buy us time.” But there is an even bigger task.
In the long term, according to the study, something has to change, especially on the electricity demand side – the so-called load. By 2045, optimizations on the electricity feed-in side would only save 22.5 billion euros, while 43.5 billion euros would be saved on the load side.
Specifically, it is about briefly limiting the power consumption of certain devices. This would be possible in the high-voltage network if large battery storage systems paid dynamic network fees. This means: Depending on the current network utilization, they would sometimes pay more and sometimes less for the electricity they draw from the grid.
The second important factor is private households. In extreme cases, devices such as heat pumps or electric cars would have to be dimmed for a short time. According to the study authors, the consequences would be manageable because houses do not cool down immediately and many electric cars are left on the charging station for hours anyway.
In theory, many of these measures have already been considered. In some cases there is already a legal basis for this. For example, Section 14a of the Energy Industry Act (EnWG) regulates that power grid operators are allowed to throttle the power supply to electric cars or heat pumps in an emergency.
However, many things have so far been difficult to implement in practice, which is hindering adequate network expansion plans. Herrndorff explains: “Operators can only make their network smaller if it is clearly regulated in advance when they can limit performance in the event of a bottleneck.”
However, she continues, priority should be given to incentives that encourage consumers to voluntarily shift their electricity demand to periods of low grid load.
At the same time, network operators are also among those causing the problem. For them, it is currently not very attractive to digitize the network and introduce intelligent measures. Because companies earn more money the more new network kilometers they build. The savings that would result from a smaller network expansion would not benefit the network operators, but rather the electricity customers.
Jochen Schwill also experiences the fact that good concepts have so far failed on a large scale in practice. He is the founder and managing director of the company Spot my Energy, which is an electricity provider and also installs intelligent electricity meters - so-called smart meters - in households.
If your household has an intelligent electricity meter, you can theoretically apply to pay more or less electricity network fees depending on the network situation (dynamic electricity network fees). Customers who then cleverly plan their electricity consumption at the right times of day or intelligently control their heat pump and charging station could save money in this way.
In practice, however, according to Schwill, the responsible network operators rarely manage to actually activate the legally provided option for households. He says: "Almost all of our customers want dynamic electricity network fees. But so far we have only been able to convert five to ten percent of them to this because the network operators do not implement this."
