Between response, red lines and refusal of escalation, NATO’s “theory of victory” in the event of conflict with Russia

In its public version, NATO’s “theory of victory” can be summed up in a few sentences. The Supreme Allied Commander, General Alexus Grynkewich, expressed them on Monday during a short speech at the Warsaw Security Forum, obviously keeping the classified details to himself. The location chosen by the American officer is symbolic: Poland is considered a good ally by the Americans, since it has increased its defense budget to 4.8%, following the injunctions of President Donald Trump. But concern is growing in eastern Europe as the war in Ukraine approaches its fifth year. Russia's hybrid attacks are increasing, as are verbal threats against the West. As head of American forces in Europe and commander of allied forces, General Grynkewich would like to discourage an attack and try to reassure European capitals.

Since the election of Donald Trump, NATO has been experiencing a crisis of confidence...