The supreme commander of NATO forces in Europe, American General Alexus Grynkewich, will send a warning to Moscow on Monday about the ability of the Atlantic Alliance to counter any attack, as concerns grow over the Russian threat. He will present his "victory theory" on how best to beat Russia in the event of an attack by the latter at a security conference in Warsaw, Poland, according to a NATO spokesperson.
This initiative comes as NATO seeks to send a message to Moscow to put an end to what Western officials describe as a "hybrid" campaign of sabotage and interference targeting Ukraine's supporters in its war against Russia. Fears have increased in recent months, with the Kremlin appearing to step up its actions after several high-profile incidents, including the discovery of a drone laden with explosives at a German airport.
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“The supreme allied commander in Europe's theory of victory is simple: maintain NATO's advantage, which is consistent with and builds on the alliance's deterrence and defense plans,” Colonel Martin O'Donnell, spokesman for the American general, said last week. “But given an unstable and complex global security environment, we must now create the conditions to deter aggression and, if necessary, prevail in the event of an attack,” Colonel O'Donnell continued, emphasizing that the “theory of victory” sets out a framework for doing just that.
In gray zone
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), founded after the Second World War, in 1949, to counter the Soviet Union, dissolved in 1991, traditionally very closely protects its defense plans intended to counter a Russian attack. Mr Grynkewich's intervention is unlikely to reveal many details about NATO's strategy. But it will send a signal to Moscow and should reassure the members of the eastern flank – bordering Russia – of the Atlantic Alliance, which today brings together the United States, Canada and 30 European countries.
NATO insists that it is a defensive alliance and that it has no intention of attacking Russia. Western officials say Moscow's "hybrid attacks" are becoming more dangerous as the Russian military gets bogged down in Ukraine, where it has been fighting since early 2022, and risk causing significant human losses.
NATO, whose main role is to deter an armed invasion from Russia, has struggled to figure out how to deal with these incidents occurring in the gray zone, below the threshold of what is considered an act of war or military operation - such as arson or sabotage. NATO's civilian leader, Secretary General Mark Rutte, called on member countries in late September to remain "calm, continue as before and support Ukraine." “We must not be naive (...) regarding Russia, but we are stronger and they know it,” he added.
But this increase in Russian activities comes at a time of potential vulnerability for Europe: the United States is currently conducting a review of its military deployment on the continent, which could lead to reductions in American troops. The decision is to be announced at the end of the year. At the same time, European countries are hastily strengthening their armed forces, driven by doubt about the reliability of Donald Trump's United States.
