United States: Americans expected to spend more than 1 trillion on the holidays, a record

Holiday spending by Americans, between November 1 and December 31, is expected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time thanks to an acceleration in the pace of growth, the National Retail Federation (NRF) said Thursday.

“Throughout 2026, we continued to be very impressed by the resilience of consumers who continued to spend and fuel our economy, and we expect this to continue through the holiday season,” said Matthew Shay, president of the NRF, during a presentation to reporters. This, he stressed, while “households continue to operate in a context of persistent inflation and uneven confidence in the economy”. This situation “has actually persisted for many years, particularly at the end of the year for the festive season, and we are confident that this pattern” will be repeated this year.

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An increase in spending of 4.2% in one year

In these circumstances, the NRF anticipated that holiday sales (excluding automobiles, fuel, restaurants) would reach a record $1.013 billion, an increase of 4.2% year-on-year. If this prediction were to materialize, it would represent an acceleration in sales since they had increased by 3.1% in 2025 compared to the previous year. These forecasts “suggest another very strong season, once again supported by the forgotten heroes of our economy: resilient consumers,” insisted Mr. Shay.

For his part, NRF chief economist Mark Mathews noted that retail spending had been “consistently strong this year”. “We expect some of this momentum to extend into November and December,” he said. He said part of the anticipated growth rate stems from the effects of inflation in the United States. The latter maintained its acceleration in September (+3.7% over one year), still largely driven by energy prices due to conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. “Consumers are very concerned about value for money at the moment, they are very concerned about affordable (products),” noted Mr. Mathews, recognizing that the situation would “vary very significantly” depending on income levels.

Especially in a context of soaring fuel prices since the launch of the war against Iran at the end of February, which will also have an impact on the cost of freight, particularly for imports of electronic equipment, toys, etc. Artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to become even more important, after the “real leap” recorded at the end of 2025. “I think it will be even more present this year,” noted Matthew Shay, referring to the deployment of new AI tools and the proliferation of agents.