Traffic at Paris airports is expected to decline in 2026, a first since 2020, predicts Groupe ADP

The year 2026 should see a halt in traffic growth at Paris-Charles-de-Gaulle and Paris-Orly airports, affected by the fuel cost crisis. The estimate came Thursday from Groupe ADP, manager of these two airports which alone saw nearly 107 million passengers pass through in 2025, or half (51%) of the total in France. Their traffic should drop slightly this year compared to 2025, the company said in a press release on Thursday, while it previously expected an increase of 0.5%.

This downward revision seemed inevitable after a disappointing summer of 2026. Total traffic fell to 20.2 million passengers in July and August, compared to 20.6 million in the same two months of the previous year. 2026 would thus be the first time that this traffic has declined since 2020, the year when the Covid-19 pandemic caused air transport activity to fall.

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This time, the disruption was of a different nature: the sudden rise in the cost of kerosene, following the war in the Middle East. It forced airlines to increase the price of plane tickets. “In September, the group's traffic remains affected by the effects of the increase in fuel prices, airline capacity adjustments and by a less favorable demand environment,” Groupe ADP indicated in a press release.

However, the company maintains its financial results forecasts for the 2026 financial year. In July, it indicated that it was counting on a gross operating surplus (EBITDA, a profitability indicator) excluding exceptional items included “in a range between 2.30 and 2.35 billion euros”, i.e. a stable level compared to 2025. Groupe ADP now indicates that this indicator should be “at the bottom of the range”, therefore slightly worse than in 2025 (2.322 billion euros).

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Tax debate

In the month of September alone, traffic increased by 1.5% year-on-year at Roissy-Charles de Gaulle, to 6.224 million passengers. On the other hand, it fell by 7.9% at Orly, to 2.858 million passengers. This drop in traffic can be seen as relatively good news for residents of these airports or for supporters of a reduction in aircraft traffic, a means of transport that consumes a lot of fossil fuels, which contribute to global warming. Around sixty opponents of the expansion of Paris-Charles-de-Gaulle airport demonstrated on Monday in front of the headquarters of Groupe ADP, calling for the abandonment of a modernization project “in complete contradiction” with France's climate objectives.

The announcement, however, does not bode well for the economic activity and employment of a region which relies heavily on its international attractiveness and its tourism. Roissy and Orly directly and indirectly generate nearly 120,000 jobs in Île-de-France, according to a study commissioned by Groupe ADP in 2024. The activity of Parisian airports is also an indicator of that of the largest private employer in Île-de-France, the Air France-KLM group, which estimates the share of its “contribution” to the region's gross domestic product at 3.1%.

Faced with rising fuel prices, the airline sector has spent the last few months trying to contain its other costs on the one hand, and advocating for less heavy taxation on the other. Groupe ADP made an allusion to this debate on Thursday. “It is specified that these perspectives did not take into account the possible effects of measures in the finance bill for 2027 on the 2026 annual results,” he wrote.

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The government wants to increase next year the “tax on the operation of long-distance transport infrastructure” (TEITLD), which weighs on the profits of motorway and airport operators. Groupe ADP is very directly concerned. According to figures revealed by Scara, a professional organization which brings together nine French airlines (excluding Air France), this tax had already cost this group 140 million euros in 2025.