Ethiopian rebel groups form alliance to challenge Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed

Forces that fought on opposing sides in Ethiopia's Tigray war have joined a seven-group military alliance to overthrow Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government and install a transitional administration, the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) said on Sunday.

Both the government and the TPLF have massed troops along the border of the northern state in recent months, according to the African Union, fuelling fears of a return to the war that killed up to 600,000 people.

"We just formed an alliance, we are collaborating with several groups and our objectives are to remove the regime and facilitating a transitional government," said TPLF Vice President Amanuel Assefa.

The groups involved are Tigrayan forces, Amhara nationalist Fano militias and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), together with four groups from three other regions, making up half of the country's 12 regional states.

"We think we will be successful, we have been talking with each other for more than a year," said Amanuel. Fano leader Zemene Kasse will chair the alliance, he added.

Abiy, who won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 partly for brokering a peace agreement with neighbouring Eritrea, has faced mounting armed opposition since 2023 as the post-war settlement unravelled.

Future unclear

The Tigray war began in November 2020 when federal forces moved against the TPLF, which had dominated Ethiopian politics for three decades before Abiy came to power in 2018.

The two sides signed the Pretoria Agreement in November 2022 to end the two-year war.

According to the deal, the TPLF was to demobilise its forces and refrain from military mobilisation.

The TPLF did not demobilise. It also unilaterally reinstated its pre-war regional council in May of this year, effectively voiding the agreement.

Kjetil Tronvoll, professor of peace and conflict studies at Oslo New University College in Norway, cast doubt on the alliance's effort to overthrow the federal government, which possesses numerous drones.

"I am not sure they will be able to sustain such a war," Tronvoll said.

"If they coordinate as a military command, it may make a difference, it is a potential four to five fronts that the government will have to deal with, it might be a challenge," he added.

Ethiopia has been plagued by armed conflicts in its two most populous regions, Oromia and Amhara.

Federal forces have been fighting the OLA, which the government has designated a "terrorist organisation", since 2018 in central Oromia.

The Fano, "self-defence" militias of the Amhara ethnic group, took up arms against the government in April 2023 after federal authorities moved to disarm them.

Despite Sunday's announcement, doubts remain over an alliance between groups that espouse different ideologies and have clashed in the past. Fano fought alongside Ethiopian federal forces during the Tigray war.

The groups also have territorial disputes. Amhara nationalists have administered Western Tigray, a contested area between Amhara and Tigray, since the end of the war.

"We will sit at the table later to solve our problems peacefully," Amanuel said.

Further violence hits Gambella region

Meanwhile, Doctors Without Borders (MSF) announced that at least 12 people have been killed and dozens injured as a result of a separate conflict in western Ethiopia near the border with South Sudan.

Clashes are frequent in the Gambella region, home to more than 400,000 refugees, most of them South Sudanese who have fled violence in the world's youngest country.

"MSF teams at Kule health centre in Ethiopia's Gambella region have been responding to an influx of wounded patients following violence in Itang Special Woreda on 18 September," the medical charity said in a statement on Sunday.

MSF said it had received 88 patients from Friday's clashes, including eight who were already dead and four who died upon arrival.

"We call on all those involved to exercise restraint and protect civilians from further violence," said MSF's operations manager in Ethiopia, Gul Badshah.

It is not clear who was responsible for the clashes.

A 2025 Rift Valley Institute report attributed the rise in conflict in Gambella to economic crisis and an influx of refugees.