BRUSSELS — European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's announcement that the EU will explore "associate membership" for Canada came as a surprise to member countries — and left governments concerned about the potential trade-offs.
During her annual State of the Union speech in Strasbourg, von der Leyen floated the upgrading of relations with Ottawa to meet the need to "urgently reimagine our partnerships" and "build global coalitions for our resilience and democracies."
Canada, which is locked in an escalating trade war with U.S. President Donald Trump's administration, will begin "opening the door" to become "the first associate member of the EU."
But the message wrong-footed national capitals, which were never asked to sign off on the idea before the speech, said three diplomats, granted anonymity to speak freely. Granting membership to the EU is a responsibility of the European Council, and no model for associate membership exists.
"Nobody really knows what it means," said one of the envoys, who has been involved in talks with the Commission about relations with Canada in recent days. "Member states have tried to manage expectations. There are only warm feelings for Ottawa, but we need to know what the details are."
A second diplomat put it more bluntly, predicting that while Canada could be given an equivalent of the EU's Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Areas deal — a market access arrangement offered to Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine — there is little mandate for other economic or political integration. "Member states will not agree on anything else," the diplomat said.
A third diplomat added that any associate membership status would require changes to the EU’s fundamental treaties — which is “impossible” due to a lack of support.
Among the potential issues that would come up if they considered going beyond that, according to the diplomats, are thorny questions around Ottawa's Made in Canada preference, which could fly in the face of single market rules; Canada's steel industry, which rivals Europe's own; taxation on the EU's car exports and its rules limiting imports of European alcohol; and its differing guidance on genetically modified produce.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has previously suggested "associate membership" as a way for closer alignment with Ukraine, although the idea was rejected by Kyiv and failed to win the support of other leaders.
Ambassadors from across the bloc met with the European Commission and the European Council last week, where they broadly agreed on the idea of closer relations with Canada — including those from right-wing governments usually more cautious of potentially angering Trump.
Responding to the announcement, Irish European Affairs minister Thomas Byrne said that “the expansion of our Union to full members, and maybe associate members, is in our strategic interest.”
But lawmakers in the chamber were less convinced. The Left MEP Manon Aubry asked von der Leyen, "Who gave you a democratic and popular mandate for that?"
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney attended the speech as part of a trip first reported by POLITICO. Amid trade and political threats from Washington, he has called for his country to ax its dependencies on the U.S. and form a club of like-minded, pro-free trade democracies. The visit was designed "to clearly signal the intention and ambition on both sides to upgrade our partnership," a senior EU official said at the time.
Carney will set out his own vision for the future of the relationship on Thursday in a speech in front of the European Parliament.
