EU defense readiness by 2030 faces challenges, warns Court of Auditors

Russia's attack on Ukraine and hybrid attacks, including in Germany, have brought defense capability into focus. At the same time, the old ally USA under President Donald Trump is becoming less and less reliable.

But is it realistic that the EU will be ready for defense by 2030, even without outside help if in doubt? And is more money alone the solution? The EU's auditors express concerns in a new analysis: The goal officially announced last year of becoming defense-ready by 2030 "still represents a challenge," states Marek Opioła, responsible member of the Court of Auditors.

“It will be difficult to achieve strategic autonomy and be able to independently conduct high-intensity military operations by 2030,” says the analysis.

The big shortcoming is coordination

On the one hand, this is due to the large backlog: for years, most EU states had invested too little money in armaments - compared to today's requirements. The armies first had to replenish their stocks, for example ammunition; The arms industry first had to expand its production capacities again. At least the auditors see “significant progress” in this area.

On the other hand, however, they complain about "fragmented national systems" and a high level of dependence on the USA: the individual member states are still largely determining "their own needs" instead of thinking in terms of partnerships from the outset and concentrating on specific skills. In 2021, shortly before the start of the war in Ukraine, only around 18 percent of the EU countries' defense equipment was procured jointly, reports the Court of Auditors.

The auditors criticize that the EU lacks an effective “top-down planning process” and that coordination is “insufficient.” This poses the risk that investments will be made twice or three times in the same things - and gaps will remain elsewhere. If the EU states soon spend even more money “without appropriate planning,” certain materials, key components or even the necessary skilled workers could become scarce, warns the Court of Auditors.

Tight public finances

In Europe, defense is actually the responsibility of the individual member states. Nevertheless, the EU is taking noticeably more responsibility in this area - and wants to continue to spend more money on it in the future.

The Court of Auditors also criticizes the fact that the EU is increasingly paying for its arms offensive through debt: Brussels partly finances joint arms purchases through bonds that are secured by the EU budget. In addition, the majority of member states financed a 90 billion euro loan for Ukraine through shared debt; Of this, 60 billion euros are earmarked for defense.

The corresponding interest costs and increased defense spending make it difficult for states to balance their budgets, keep their debt within limits - and at the same time agree on an EU financial framework for the years 2028 to 2034; So far the ideas are very far apart.