
AI-generated summary
Early parliamentary elections are approaching in Spain, announced by Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez after the Congress of Deputies did not approve the decrees of his minority government increasing the protection of tenants. The campaign takes place against the backdrop of protests related to the housing crisis and the effects of the summer migration crisis in Ceuta.
A survey by the non-public DYM studio for the "20 minutos" daily shows that almost 35 percent of people want to vote for the conservative People's Party (PP), led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo. respondents. According to calculations, this could give the party from 140 to 148 seats.
Second place goes to Santiago Abascal's far-right Vox, supported by just over 17 percent. respondents. The party could count on 58–61 seats in parliament. The ruling Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) led by Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez won just over 26 percent. indications, which would translate into 102–105 seats.
On the left side of the political scene, Sumar can count on 4.5 percent. support, and Podemos on almost 4 percent.
On the left side of the political scene there is also Sumar, for whom 4.5 percent want to vote. respondents (6-7 seats), and Podemos, which can count on support of less than 4 percent. (2-3 seats).
Those in power are losing compared to 2023, but they are improving the result
Compared to the 2023 elections, the ruling Socialist Workers' Party is down in this poll, while Vox is gaining almost 5 percentage points. Support for the People's Party remained close to the result from the last vote.
The largest decline was recorded by Sumar - almost 8 percentage points. At the same time, the survey for "20 minutos" shows that the socialists have stopped the downward trend. Compared to the previous survey, their result increased by almost 2 percentage points.
Similar conclusions come from the study of the 40db studio for the public radio station Cadena SER and the daily "El País". PP obtained almost 32 percent. support, Vox - almost 19 percent, and PSOE - just over 28 percent. In this poll, Vox improved its result compared to the previous election by 6.5 percentage points, and the socialists lost almost 4 points.
Interestingly, in a public poll conducted by the sociological institute CIS, conducted before the decision to dissolve the parliament, the ruling PSOE enjoys the greatest support (31%). PP obtained 25.5% in this survey, and Vox - 16.6%.
Early elections in Spain
Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez decided on Monday to call early elections after three days earlier the Congress of Deputies did not approve the decrees of his minority government increasing the protection of tenants. Protests related to the housing crisis and the effects of the summer migration crisis in Ceuta remain in the background of the campaign.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The People's Party (PP) will win the elections, but will not obtain an absolute majority and will have to look for coalition partners
Likely · Within weeks
Vox will increase its number of seats compared to the 2023 elections thanks to an increase in support by almost 5 percentage points.
Very likely · Within weeks
The Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) will stop the downward trend, but will not regain full support from the previous elections
Likely · Within weeks

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