The Gulf countries around the Persian Gulf have been afraid of becoming more involved in the war between Iran, the US and Israel. Gradually, it looks like this has become the case for Saudi Arabia. Over the weekend, Iran-backed Houthi rebels attacked several airports in the country, killing at least 14 people and injuring over 300.
According to Aron Lund, Middle East analyst at FOI, the situation is the worst possible scenario for Saudi Arabia.
- It was feared that this would happen, he says.
In addition to people dying, the financial consequences are great. The conflict could make it even more difficult for the nation to export its most important commodity – oil. It is already difficult because of the war in Iran, which has greatly disrupted maritime traffic in the area. The Huthi rebels, who have claimed responsibility for almost all attacks against the country in the past week, are targeting oil exports, just like Iran.
- You attack the country's weak points. It goes hand in hand with Iran's strategy of trying to drive up the price of oil globally, he says.
The Iran-allied militia group has previously attacked Saudi oil tankers on their way out of the Red Sea. The war against the Houthi rebels could thus make it difficult for the oil nation to export oil along both sides of the Arabian Peninsula.
In addition to the economy, the attacks also damage the image that the country tries to convey to the outside world. Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, also known as MBS, has a vision to create a more modern country.
- He has carried out huge changes in Saudi Arabia in the last ten years. The religious police and the ban on music and film have disappeared - or at least pushed aside, says Aron Lund.
Development programs try to evoke an image of business life, optimism and faith in the future, according to Aron Lund.
- It plays very badly with the fact that there is a war and robots fall in the capital, he says.
The ongoing energy conference in Riyadh describes the Middle East analyst as a prestige project in the taste of the crown prince. The organizers have announced that it will continue as usual despite the attacks by the Houthi movement. But the presence among the industry's big players looks set to be lower than in previous years. Multinational energy company BP announced on Sunday that it will not attend, according to Reuters.
The war between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi rebels broke out over ten years ago, but a truce was reached in 2022. Until the war in Iran began in February, there were no signs that the truce was breaking down, according to Aron Lund. But over the summer, Saudi Arabia attacked an Iranian plane that was about to land in an area of Yemen controlled by the Houthi rebels.
- The conflict is connected with Iran because the Houthis receive support from Iran at the same time as Iran and Saudi Arabia are at each other's throats, says Aron Lund.
Saudi Arabia has also been allied with the United States for several decades. President Donald Trump has said he will consider whether the United States should strike against the Houthis. Britain is also considering sending aid to Saudi Arabia, the BBC reports.
Over the weekend, the war on the Arabian Peninsula intensified sharply. According to Aron Lund, Saudi Arabia has rarely seen such large-scale attacks on its own territory. The situation in the Middle East now resembles more and more the regional war that many warned would break out when the war in Gaza and then Iran broke out.
It is also the alliances around these two conflicts that revolve a lot, according to Lund.
- If you can solve or get a truce on one of the fronts, then a lot of other things can certainly be handled as well, he says and continues:
- The region has seen bloodier conflicts, but this is an almost unprecedented tangle of conflicts.
