Exports: China's trade surplus will soon reach the trillion dollar mark

China's exports grew by more than 36 percent in September - and continued to increase to Germany and the EU. This is likely to increase the pressure on EU negotiators before the summit in Brussels.

Taicang port in Jiangsu province: The EU wants to limit imports of Chinese hybrid cars. Photo: XinHua/dpa

China's exports rose 36.3 percent in September, according to the customs authority, while imports rose 31 percent.

China's trade surplus reached $938 billion in the first nine months and stood at $133.5 billion in September, more than economists expected.

Brussels and Beijing recently agreed to limit the import of Chinese hybrid cars, and the EU wants to accommodate China with protective tariffs on electric cars.

The summary was created and editorially checked using AI.

Shanghai. China's exports continue to rise rapidly - more than expected: In September, according to the latest figures from the customs authority on Wednesday, exports grew by 36.3 percent compared to the previous year (calculated in US dollars). The last time they increased this much was in February. Imports also rose sharply, by 31 percent compared to the previous year.

The fact that exports continue to increase is likely to further exacerbate conflicts with international trading partners, although talks are ongoing to limit exports. In trade with Germany, China's exports rose by 31.4 percent in September, while imports remained low with an increase of 0.1 percent compared to the previous year. The People's Republic also exported significantly more to the European Union (EU) in September, with an increase of 25.3 percent, than it imported from there with an increase of 0.7 percent.

This is having an increasingly severe impact on the trade balance: China's trade surplus rose to $938 billion in the first nine months of this year and is heading for a new record. In September alone the surplus was $133.5 billion. That is significantly more than economists had forecast in a Bloomberg survey: they had assumed $117.8 billion.

According to a Bloomberg estimate, the surplus is likely to exceed the symbolic $1 trillion mark as early as October. In 2025, this only happened in November. For the whole of last year, China achieved a surplus of around 1.2 trillion US dollars.

AI is also driving the export boom

The trend is also driven by high international demand for Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) technologies and applications. In view of the US tariff hurdles, Chinese companies are looking for new sales markets.

» Read also: The yuan should rise – but not at the behest of the West

According to the International Monetary Fund, economies in Asia absorbed around half of the redirected trade flows, and the EU absorbed almost a fifth. At the same time, domestic demand in China is weakening. Companies see their way out in exports.

Efforts are being made to mitigate the conflicts, especially with the USA and the EU. Last week, Brussels and Beijing agreed to limit imports of Chinese hybrid cars. At the same time, a statement suggests that the EU is accommodating China with protective tariffs on electric cars. The current export data refers to September - that was before the current negotiations between China and the EU.

The upcoming EU summit should clarify what the regulations could look like in concrete terms. The heads of state and government will meet in Brussels on Thursday and Friday to discuss, among other things, new protective instruments for the European economy. Partners like the EU have long been calling on Beijing to take steps to address the growing trade imbalance.

Trade

“Decisive first step”: EU and China agree in the dispute over the export of electric cars

China, in turn, easily accommodated its partners when it came to taxing e-car exports. The government in Beijing wants to reduce the VAT export refund for electric vehicles from 13 to nine percent from April 1, 2027, it announced this week. The rate of 13 percent remains for gasoline engines.

Weak domestic demand is driving exports

The moderate change increases the tax burden on electric car exporters and is intended to reduce the price advantage of Chinese automakers compared to foreign competition. However, the step is also considered to be domestically motivated: It is intended to help consolidate the market – and mitigate the immense competition. Rising exports are a response to China's industrial capacity combined with weak domestic demand. In addition, there is strong, price-intensive competition within the country.

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The escalating hostilities in the Middle East, which have caused oil prices to rise to more than $100 per barrel in recent weeks, are also weighing on the Chinese economy. Producer prices rose sharply again in September and were five percent above the previous year's level, as the statisticians announced on Wednesday. These higher costs for industrial companies are also likely to further drive exports to the higher-margin European markets.

More: “Decisive first step”: EU and China agree in the dispute over the export of electric cars

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