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Back俄軍持續推進頓巴斯地區,烏軍防線面臨壓力
俄軍持續推進頓巴斯地區,烏軍防線面臨壓力
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自由时报26 minutes agoWorld3 min readChina

俄軍持續推進頓巴斯地區,烏軍防線面臨壓力

俄軍在頓內茨克州緩慢推進,試圖蠶食烏軍「堡壘防線」,烏克蘭前線樂觀情緒消退。

Quick Look

俄軍正於烏克蘭東部頓巴斯地區緩慢推進,逐步逼近斯拉夫揚斯克與克拉莫托斯克等戰略城市。儘管進展緩慢,但俄軍透過消耗戰削弱烏軍防禦與後勤,導致烏軍東部防線壓力劇增,平民撤離難度亦隨之上升。

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Why It Matters

俄軍目標為攻占頓內茨克及盧甘斯克兩州全境。目前烏軍在頓巴斯地區的防線由多座戰略城市組成。

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美國有線電視新聞網CNN 9日報導,俄軍持續在烏克蘭東部頓巴斯地區緩慢推進,逐步逼近烏軍最後幾座重要戰略城市。儘管俄軍進展緩慢且付出高昂代價,但烏克蘭過去數月在前線的樂觀情緒正逐漸消退,東部防線面臨愈來愈大的壓力。

俄軍目前正蠶食由斯拉夫揚斯克(Slovyansk)、克拉莫托斯克(Kramatorsk)、德魯日基夫卡(Druzhkivka)及康斯坦丁諾夫卡(Kostyantynivka)組成的「堡壘防線」。這條防線是烏軍守衛頓巴斯的重要骨幹,也是阻擋俄軍進一步向烏克蘭中部推進的關鍵屏障。

美國戰爭研究所(ISW)分析指出,俄軍正透過持續滲透和消耗戰,逐步削弱烏軍在這一帶的防禦與後勤能力。俄軍已在康斯坦丁諾夫卡取得進展,並朝斯拉夫揚斯克及克拉莫托斯克方向推進。不過,俄軍目前仍難以發動快速突破,戰線推進速度相當緩慢。

ISW數據顯示,俄軍8月在烏克蘭境內推進或滲透約124平方公里,僅約為去年同期的四分之一。俄軍雖然未能取得重大突破,卻持續以人力與火力消耗烏軍。

CNN指出,這種作戰方式在巴赫姆特(Bakhmut)及波克羅夫斯克(Pokrovsk)已反覆出現。俄軍往往耗費數月甚至數年逐步包圍、轟炸城市,最終攻占時,城市及基礎設施已遭到嚴重破壞,戰略價值也大幅降低。

目前克拉莫托斯克也開始承受日益猛烈的攻擊。該市過去是烏軍的重要後方及休整地點,但隨著俄軍逼近,這項功能正逐漸受到威脅。烏克蘭平民撤離也更加困難。頓內茨克州仍有約9.3萬人生活在烏軍控制區,其中包括超過4800名兒童。由於地雷及俄軍無人機活動密集,部分前線城鎮已難以由車輛進入,救援人員只能在距離城鎮數公里外接應撤離居民。

俄羅斯總統普廷仍堅持攻占頓內茨克及盧甘斯克兩州全境的戰爭目標。俄方宣稱戰場正在取得「實質進展」,但CNN無法獨立證實相關說法。

分析家指出,俄軍的目標未必是立即攻占這些城市,而是先削弱烏軍的補給、後勤及防禦能力,為日後進一步攻勢創造條件。俄軍若能突破這條「堡壘防線」,將可能更容易向西推進,對烏克蘭腹地形成更大威脅。

Open Questions

  • 烏軍是否能有效阻擋俄軍對堡壘防線的進一步滲透?
  • 頓內茨克州剩餘平民的撤離計畫進展為何?

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This article was originally published by 自由时报.

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