
AI-generated summary
El Niño is a climate phenomenon in which sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean rise abnormally and has a significant impact on global weather patterns. Super El Niño events are often accompanied by extreme meteorological disasters.
China News Service, October 9. According to the National Climate Center’s WeChat public account, since May 2026, the equatorial central and eastern Pacific has entered an El Niño state, and the sea temperature index in key areas from May to September has shown a continued trend of rapid warming. The three-month moving average of the SST index in the Niño3.4 area has exceeded 0.5°C for five consecutive months; among them, the moving average from July to September exceeded 2.5°C, reaching the super event standard [El Niño/La Niña event identification method (GB/T 33666-2017)]. Therefore, a super strong El Niño event will officially form in September 2026. The type is the eastern type, that is, the sea warm center is located in the equatorial eastern Pacific.
September sea temperature: The eastern Pacific warm center is more than 3.0℃ higher
In September, the sea surface temperature (SST) in most of the equatorial Pacific was higher than the same period in normal years, and the warm water center in the eastern Pacific was above 3.0°C. The SST index in the Niño3.4 zone in September was 2.94°C, an increase of 0.35°C compared with August (Figure 2). In the past three months, from July to September, the average Niño3.4 index was 2.54°C.
Distribution map of sea surface temperature anomalies in September 2026 (℃) Image source: National Climate Center WeChat official account
Monthly evolution of sea temperature index (℃) and SOI index in Niño3.4 area. Image source: National Climate Center WeChat official account
El Niño and main mode trend prediction of sea temperature in the Indian Ocean and North Atlantic Ocean
Based on predictions from domestic and foreign dynamic climate models and statistical methods, it is expected that sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific will continue to rise in the next three months, reaching a peak in late autumn and early winter. This El Niño event will become the strongest El Niño event since systematic monitoring. Both the tropical Indian Ocean sea temperature consistent mode and the tropical Indian Ocean Dipole continue to be in positive phase, and the subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole develops in negative phase. The North Atlantic tripole develops in negative phase, and the tropical North Atlantic sea temperature maintains positive phase.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific will continue to rise in the next three months, reaching a peak in late autumn and early winter.
Very likely · Within months
This El Niño event will be the strongest El Niño event since systematic monitoring
Likely · Within months

Heavy rainstorms occurred in the eastern part of Hainan Island, with the maximum cumulative precipitation in Wanning reaching 210.1 mm. The Hainan Provincial Meteorological Bureau continued to issue level four rainstorm warnings and red warnings, and Qionghai, Wanning and other places announced the suspension of primary and secondary schools and kindergartens. Meteorological experts pointed out that this rainfall is a typical autumn rainstorm in Hainan, caused by the easterly jet stream affected by the combination of cold and warm air. The Department of Water Affairs and the Meteorological Bureau jointly issued a yellow flash flood meteorological risk warning to remind the public to guard against secondary disasters and provide safety avoidance guidelines.

The Central Meteorological Observatory predicts that the cumulative precipitation in the next 10 days will be 20 to 40 millimeters in northern and western Xinjiang, and the southeastern part of the northwest region. It will reach 60 to 130 millimeters in local areas such as the Sichuan Basin, and more than 180 millimeters in eastern Hainan Island. Except for the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, western Yunnan and other places, the average temperature is 1 to 2 degrees Celsius lower, and most of the rest of my country has higher temperatures. Some areas such as Xinjiang and western Gansu are 2 to 4 degrees Celsius higher. There was heavy rainfall in Hainan Island on the 9th, light to moderate rain or snow in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and other places on the 9th-10th, and most areas in the north were affected by cold air on the 11th-13th, with a temperature drop of 4 to 6°C and winds of level 4 to 5.

Affected by heavy rainfall, Wanning City, Hainan Province raised the flood and wind prevention level IV emergency response to level II. All primary and secondary schools in the city were suspended for half a day, and kindergartens and off-campus training institutions were suspended for one day. Rainfall in many towns exceeded 200 millimeters. The meteorological observatory issued a red rainstorm warning and jointly issued a meteorological risk warning for flash floods. The traffic police reminded citizens to pay attention to waterlogged roads.

The Central Meteorological Observatory forecast that yesterday there would be moderate or heavy rain in southern Sichuan, northwest Guizhou, central and eastern Hainan Island, and other places. Heavy rain or heavy rain would occur in parts of eastern Hainan Island. The maximum cumulative precipitation in Wanning, Hainan reached 210.1 mm. Light to moderate snow or sleet occurred in central and eastern Qinghai, with local heavy snowfall. Heavy rainfall is expected to continue in Hainan Island today, and it will be rainy and snowy in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Sichuan Basin and other places. There were moderate to heavy rains in some areas in the mountainous areas of northern Xinjiang and southeastern Tibet. There were heavy rains in the eastern part of Hainan Island and local heavy rains. There will be light to moderate snow or sleet in the eastern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and heavy to heavy snowfall in the high-altitude mountains of Altay, Xinjiang, with localized heavy snowfall. From the 9th to the 12th, the atmospheric diffusion conditions gradually deteriorated in central and southern North China, western Huanghuai and other places, with light haze in some areas. From the 10th to the 12th, there was localized moderate haze in central and southern North China. Most of Jiangsu and Anhui, central and eastern Liaoning and other places had heavy fog in the morning. Affected by the cold air from the 13th, the fog and haze in the above-mentioned areas will weaken and dissipate from north to south. Meteorological experts reminded that before the 13th, you need to pay attention to protection when going out in places such as North China and Huanghuai. Visibility is poor during heavy fog, so you must pay attention to traffic safety when driving.

The China Weather Network reported that today and tomorrow, the central and eastern parts will mainly have fine weather, with high temperatures and a large temperature difference between day and night. The rain in Hainan Island is still strong and there are heavy rainstorms in some places; the cold air will affect most of the north the day after tomorrow, and there will be strong winds and cooling, and rainfall in the central and eastern parts will increase. You need to pay attention to the weather forecast and pay attention to onion-style clothing to cope with temperature changes.

The Central Meteorological Observatory predicts that there will still be heavy rainfall in Hainan Island on the 9th, and it is necessary to prevent flash floods and geological disasters. In the next three days, it will be rainy and snowy in northern Xinjiang and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and it will be rainy in the eastern northwest and the Sichuan Basin. The low-visibility weather in the Huanghuai River in North China will affect traffic and health.