
国家气候中心宣布,2026年5月以来赤道中东太平洋进入厄尔尼诺状态,7-9月Niño3.4区海温指数三个月滑动平均值达2.54℃,超过超强事件标准,9月海温指数为2.94℃,东太平洋暖水中心偏高3.0℃以上,预计未来三个月海温将继续升高,此次事件或成为有系统性监测以来最强厄尔尼诺。
AI-generated summary
厄尔尼诺是赤道中东太平洋海表温度异常升高的气候现象,对全球天气模式有显著影响。超强厄尔尼诺事件通常伴随极端气象灾害。
中新网10月9日电 据国家气候中心微信公众号消息,2026年5月以来,赤道中东太平洋进入厄尔尼诺状态,5—9月关键区海温指数呈现快速增暖持续趋势。Niño3.4区海温指数三个月滑动平均值已连续五个月超过0.5℃;其中,7—9月滑动平均值超过2.5℃,达到超强事件标准【厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜事件判别方法(GB/T 33666—2017)】。因此,2026年9月正式形成一次超强厄尔尼诺事件,类型为东部型,即海温暖中心位于赤道东太平洋。
9月海温:东太平洋暖中心偏高3.0℃以上
9月,赤道太平洋大部海表温度(SST)较常年同期偏高,东太平洋暖水中心偏高3.0℃以上。9月Niño3.4区海温指数为2.94℃,较8月上升0.35℃(图2)。最近三个月,即7—9月,Niño3.4指数平均值为2.54℃。
2026年9月海表温度距平分布图(℃) 图片来源:国家气候中心微信公众号
Niño3.4区海温指数(℃)和SOI指数逐月演变 图片来源:国家气候中心微信公众号
厄尔尼诺及印度洋和北大西洋海温主模态趋势预测
综合国内外动力气候模式和统计方法预测,预计未来三个月赤道中东太平洋海表温度将继续升高,在秋末冬初达到峰值,此次厄尔尼诺事件将成为有系统性监测以来最强厄尔尼诺事件;热带印度洋海温一致模态和热带印度洋偶极子均持续正位相,副热带印度洋偶极子负位相发展;北大西洋三极子负位相发展,热带北大西洋海温维持正位相。
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
未来三个月赤道中东太平洋海表温度将继续升高,在秋末冬初达到峰值
Very likely · Within months
此次厄尔尼诺事件将成为有系统性监测以来最强厄尔尼诺事件
Likely · Within months

The Taichung City Environmental Protection Bureau announced the garbage collection and transportation arrangements for the National Day holiday. Normal collection and transportation will be maintained on October 9. On October 10, the National Day will be changed to scheduled collection and transportation. On October 11, the collection and transportation will be stopped during the holiday. The public is reminded to pay attention to the time and place and respond to garbage reduction.

Heavy rainstorms occurred in the eastern part of Hainan Island, with the maximum cumulative precipitation in Wanning reaching 210.1 mm. The Hainan Provincial Meteorological Bureau continued to issue level four rainstorm warnings and red warnings, and Qionghai, Wanning and other places announced the suspension of primary and secondary schools and kindergartens. Meteorological experts pointed out that this rainfall is a typical autumn rainstorm in Hainan, caused by the easterly jet stream affected by the combination of cold and warm air. The Department of Water Affairs and the Meteorological Bureau jointly issued a yellow flash flood meteorological risk warning to remind the public to guard against secondary disasters and provide safety avoidance guidelines.

The Central Meteorological Observatory predicts that the cumulative precipitation in the next 10 days will be 20 to 40 millimeters in northern and western Xinjiang, and the southeastern part of the northwest region. It will reach 60 to 130 millimeters in local areas such as the Sichuan Basin, and more than 180 millimeters in eastern Hainan Island. Except for the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, western Yunnan and other places, the average temperature is 1 to 2 degrees Celsius lower, and most of the rest of my country has higher temperatures. Some areas such as Xinjiang and western Gansu are 2 to 4 degrees Celsius higher. There was heavy rainfall in Hainan Island on the 9th, light to moderate rain or snow in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and other places on the 9th-10th, and most areas in the north were affected by cold air on the 11th-13th, with a temperature drop of 4 to 6°C and winds of level 4 to 5.

Affected by heavy rainfall, Wanning City, Hainan Province raised the flood and wind prevention level IV emergency response to level II. All primary and secondary schools in the city were suspended for half a day, and kindergartens and off-campus training institutions were suspended for one day. Rainfall in many towns exceeded 200 millimeters. The meteorological observatory issued a red rainstorm warning and jointly issued a meteorological risk warning for flash floods. The traffic police reminded citizens to pay attention to waterlogged roads.

The Central Meteorological Observatory forecast that yesterday there would be moderate or heavy rain in southern Sichuan, northwest Guizhou, central and eastern Hainan Island, and other places. Heavy rain or heavy rain would occur in parts of eastern Hainan Island. The maximum cumulative precipitation in Wanning, Hainan reached 210.1 mm. Light to moderate snow or sleet occurred in central and eastern Qinghai, with local heavy snowfall. Heavy rainfall is expected to continue in Hainan Island today, and it will be rainy and snowy in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Sichuan Basin and other places. There were moderate to heavy rains in some areas in the mountainous areas of northern Xinjiang and southeastern Tibet. There were heavy rains in the eastern part of Hainan Island and local heavy rains. There will be light to moderate snow or sleet in the eastern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and heavy to heavy snowfall in the high-altitude mountains of Altay, Xinjiang, with localized heavy snowfall. From the 9th to the 12th, the atmospheric diffusion conditions gradually deteriorated in central and southern North China, western Huanghuai and other places, with light haze in some areas. From the 10th to the 12th, there was localized moderate haze in central and southern North China. Most of Jiangsu and Anhui, central and eastern Liaoning and other places had heavy fog in the morning. Affected by the cold air from the 13th, the fog and haze in the above-mentioned areas will weaken and dissipate from north to south. Meteorological experts reminded that before the 13th, you need to pay attention to protection when going out in places such as North China and Huanghuai. Visibility is poor during heavy fog, so you must pay attention to traffic safety when driving.

The China Weather Network reported that today and tomorrow, the central and eastern parts will mainly have fine weather, with high temperatures and a large temperature difference between day and night. The rain in Hainan Island is still strong and there are heavy rainstorms in some places; the cold air will affect most of the north the day after tomorrow, and there will be strong winds and cooling, and rainfall in the central and eastern parts will increase. You need to pay attention to the weather forecast and pay attention to onion-style clothing to cope with temperature changes.