Five largest buyers of Russian oil may face US tariffs
The US bill gives the president the right to impose 100 percent tariffs on energy imports from Russia
Quick Look
- Major importers of Russian oil, including China and India, face 100 percent US tariffs under the new bill.
- Analysts note the difficulty of replacing Russian supplies and possible attempts by countries to achieve exceptions.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
The United States is considering a bill to introduce 100 percent duties on Russian oil imports. China and India are the largest buyers of Russian oil since the start of sanctions pressure.
The five largest buyers of Russian energy will be extremely concerned about the potential use of a bill that gives US President Donald Trump the power to impose 100 percent tariffs on countries importing oil from Russia. This was stated by Deborah Elms, head of the trade policy department of the Hinrich Foundation. She was quoted by CNBC.
It is noted that the PRC and India, which are actively buying cheap Russian oil, will be in the most vulnerable position. And the US war with Iran has further reduced energy supplies. Since the Hormuz crisis, the combined share of Russian oil imports to India and China has increased from one fifth to one third, according to Kpler. As of late August, China was buying half of Russia's oil exports, followed by India (37 percent), Turkey (5 percent) and the European Union (5 percent), according to the Center for Energy and Clean Air Research.
Under current conditions, Kpler analysts believe it will be extremely difficult for both Beijing and New Delhi to replace the 3.5 million barrels per day of Russian offshore supply, in addition to the roughly 600,000 barrels China imports via pipeline. In turn, Washington is unlikely to escalate tensions and upset Beijing ahead of next week's summit. China will ignore attempts to limit oil purchases, giving priority to energy security.
As for India, it is in a more difficult situation, since it has not yet concluded a trade agreement with the United States and is increasingly dependent on Russian oil supplies. And it cannot afford to refuse these imports. Meanwhile, public opinion in India is becoming increasingly anti-American.
However, the bill allows the president to grant exceptions to certain countries in certain circumstances. So New Delhi will likely try to secure this exception in secret.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
New Delhi will try to secretly seek an exemption from the tariffs.
Likely · Within months
Open Questions
- Will the bill be adopted in its current form?
- Which countries will receive exceptions?
