Analysis by CNN's Stephen Collinson
(CNN) - During the press conference held by US President Donald Trump on Monday, it became clear, even though a long time had passed since its beginning, the reason for his strong insistence on supporting US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, in the midst of the political storm demanding his removal.
After all, Trump is defending himself.
Abandoning Hegseth, a former Fox News anchor, at this time would mean admitting that the war on Iran, which Hegseth is the most ardent advocate within the US administration, was a mistake. His dismissal would also undermine Trump's attempt to recast what can be described, at best, as an unresolved military adventure, and at worst, a strategic catastrophe.
On Monday, Trump offered his strongest support yet for Hegseth, shortly after his arch rival, Republican Representative Thomas Massie, presented eight articles demanding the impeachment of the Secretary of Defense before the House of Representatives.
Trump announced his support for his Secretary of Defense during another public appearance that was of an unusual nature, and the President described it as “a little bit of fun,” as he once again offered UFC President Dana White the position of White House spokesman, before adding that he was “a bit joking.”
Trump asked reporters: “But in reality, what did Hegseth do? He won the war. He was responsible for it. He won the war in Venezuela, as I said, within 48 minutes. The operation was perfect. No one was killed. I believe he won the war against Iran, but he is definitely winning it.”
The special forces raid that resulted in the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was a bold and dangerous operation, but it was by no means a war. It is also questionable to say that the United States has won in Iran, at least from a strategic perspective.
Hegseth is the administration official most similar to Trump
Aside from the war issue, there are political reasons why the president, who is currently retreating within a narrow and ever-shrinking circle, is reluctant to abandon Hegseth.
The Secretary of Defense is the administration official who succeeded, more deliberately than others, in embodying Trump’s political identity. He has dared to keep journalists out of the Pentagon, engages in cultural battles and campaigns against so-called “woke culture,” and seems intent on casting his impeachment as a badge of honor. If Trump were to abandon the man who renamed the Pentagon the “War Department,” he would be destroying his own political image.
However, as Trump vented his anger over what he saw as unfair treatment of Hegseth in the White House briefing room, he also highlighted a political impasse that is suffocating him. He is fighting a political battle from the past; Millions of voters in the midterm elections have just expressed their rejection of his war and his confrontational political approach. His adherence to his position may exacerbate his predicament.
Trump and Hegseth seem to be living, each of them, in a private reality of their own making, in the middle of a war in which a smaller, less powerful repressive regime has been able to withstand the massive American attack. The war has cost tens of billions of dollars, and its costs are still rising. It has also alienated US allies in the Gulf region, sparked an energy crisis and a rise in the cost of living.
In an interview broadcast Sunday on CBS' 60 Minutes, the president said he would "not change anything" regarding this conflict. For his part, Hegseth told reporters on Monday that he would be happy to discuss the "success" of the military operations carried out by the administration "all day long."
As for Trump's claims that he has completely eliminated the Iranian nuclear program, it may take years to fully evaluate them. But continuing to convince voters that a war they hate is a victory seems like a consistently losing political bet.
Macy attacks Hegseth
Impeachment is the most serious constitutional action a public official can face, or so it has been in the normal political world that has seemed to unravel since Trump took office.
Hegseth faces charges of, among other things, waging an unlawful war against Iran, in violation of constitutional limits on war powers, ignoring laws intended to reduce civilian casualties, and abusing his powers by supervising “extrajudicial killings” targeting boats suspected of being used for drug trafficking in the Caribbean and Pacific regions.
Each of the articles of impeachment, which also includes military strikes in Yemen and the attempt to punish Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly for telling members of the armed forces that they have the right to refuse unlawful orders, raises serious constitutional debate.
“The truth is that we are not accusing him of being bad at his job,” Massey said. “In fact, he was very effective in killing school children in Iran, and he was very effective in carrying out extrajudicial killings. There is no allegation in the articles of impeachment that he was ineffective. Rather, the argument here is that he broke the laws and violated the constitution.”
But Trump is right, to some extent, in saying that this is a political process par excellence.
Massey, a longtime Trump foe, has drawn the president's ire with his successful efforts to pass a law allowing the public to access Jeffrey Epstein's files. Trump played a key role in undermining Massey's political career, by supporting a Make America Great Again (MAGA) rival in the Republican primary.
In statements he made on Monday, Trump described Massey as "a sick person, a very sick person. There is something really wrong with him," and he also called him "a failure by all standards."
For his part, Massey mocked Hegseth, anticipating how he would respond during a rare press conference called by the Defense Minister on Tuesday.
Massey told reporters: “I hope he addresses the eight articles of impeachment, and does not get up and quote verses from the Bible incorrectly in the manner of Quentin Tarantino, then do some dumbbell exercises, and call everyone fat and gay just for supporting these impeachment measures.”
The timing of Massey's move to demand impeachment also bears important significance. After the crushing defeat suffered by Republicans in the midterm elections, this move will allow angry Republican representatives, who are at the end of their political careers, the opportunity to vote in revenge against Trump and the war that contributed to their loss of their positions. The defection of a large group of Republicans would undermine Hegseth's authority, and raise the political costs that Trump may bear as a result of continuing to support him.
As for the Democrats, they are having a lot of fun with this scene.
Hakeem Jeffries, the Democratic minority leader in the House of Representatives, who is likely to become the next speaker, said Monday: “I have made it very clear that I strongly support impeachment.”
Jeffries mocked the Iran war plan, calling it an “operational fiasco,” adding: “Pete Hegseth has abused his power and undermined American national security. He is the architect of the United States’ reckless, costly, and failed war of choice in Iran, which has sent fuel prices skyrocketing for ordinary Americans and made the country less safe.”
Democrats in the House of Representatives are likely to vote enthusiastically to impeach any Trump administration official. But they will find themselves facing a delicate challenge in the new Congress. They must avoid going too far in their planned investigations into Trump, while at the same time responding to voters' demands to address the rising cost of living crisis.
However, the current impeachment procedures, which were initiated by a Republican representative, give Democrats an opportunity to vote without bearing any negative political consequences that might have beenfall them had they been the ones who initiated this issue.
Hegseth's bet...and why might he not stay in office for long?
Hegseth's press conference may not go according to the scenario drawn up by Massey, but the move carries a risk. If the conference follows the lines of Hegseth's highly aggressive videos in his own defense, which appear to be intended to catch Trump's attention, it could deepen concerns about his performance among House Republicans and, inadvertently, strengthen the arguments for impeachment.
Hegseth appears to be safe from being ousted from office in the short term, as the two-thirds majority needed to convict him in any Senate impeachment trial is unlikely to be met.
But the defense minister, who has drawn bipartisan anger over the war, will not be immune from trouble. Republican Senator Kevin Cramer, a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, told reporters on Monday that he does not support his impeachment, but added: “The question of whether he should keep his position or not is up to him, his family, or the president.”
Hegseth may become a political liability for Trump when the latter needs to pass defense spending requests through a Democratic-controlled Congress.
Speaking with CNN's Kaitlan Collins on Monday, Massey expressed his belief that there was a "high probability" that Hegseth would not be able to remain in his position until the end of the year.
“They continue to support them until the day they stop,” Massey said, expecting that the new Congress will summon officials who worked under Hegseth’s leadership, “who witnessed some things and know things that have not been revealed to the public yet.”
Then there is the war that never seems to end.
On Monday, Trump showed that he still lacks a plan to achieve lasting peace, as his statements moved between predicting an imminent agreement, claiming that what is happening is not a real war to begin with, and warning that he is “prepared, armed, and ready to launch” in a new attack.
If Trump cannot emerge from this conflict, the war will continue to cast a shadow over the last two years of his term. But turning the political page will be difficult as Hegseth continues to lead the Pentagon.
Therefore, the most dangerous moment for the Secretary of Defense may not come after the impeachment proceedings, but rather when Trump realizes that the best way to protect himself is not to defend Hegseth, but rather to sacrifice and abandon him.
