Ethiopian federal forces took control of the city of Mekele, the capital of the Tigray region in the north of the country, after the rebels withdrew from it, while four neighboring countries called during a summit in Egypt for settling regional disputes with “political and peaceful solutions.”
With the renewal of the conflict in the Ethiopian Tigray region, it appears that the fronts of confrontation have begun to expand into the geopolitical arena.
Ethiopia, Eritrea and Egypt find themselves in the midst of a diplomatic confrontation that is escalating at a rapid pace, raising fears that tensions will cross borders and drag competing regional powers in the Horn of Africa and its surroundings into the conflict.
Gilles-Emmanuel Jacquet, a lecturer at the Geneva School of Diplomacy and International Relations, says, “There may be an overlap or intersection between the conflict resulting from instability in Ethiopia and the crisis sparked by the Renaissance Dam project.”
He added in an interview with DW Arabia, "In other words, Egypt may seek help from Ethiopia's neighboring countries to increase pressure on Ethiopia at a time when the latter is going through a severe political crisis, and perhaps an internal conflict."
Cairo rejects the accusations...the El Alamein message?
Cairo rejects the Ethiopian accusations. In the midst of this tension, the Egyptian city of El Alamein hosted a summit that brought together leaders of four countries neighboring Ethiopia and linked to Addis Ababa by controversial issues.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi called for the summit, with the participation of Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud, and Sudanese army commander Abdel Fattah al-Burhan.
The joint declaration published by the Egyptian presidency stressed “respecting the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of the countries of the region, upholding the values of good neighborliness, rejecting interference in the internal affairs of the countries of the region under any pretext, and working to support national institutions and promote political and peaceful solutions to conflicts.”
The dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia is still ongoing over the “Renaissance Dam” that the latter built on the Blue Nile, and Cairo considers it a threat to its water security.
In this context, Magnus Taylor, deputy director of the Horn of Africa Project at the International Crisis Group, says that Egypt “developed its relations with Ethiopia’s neighbors, especially Eritrea and Sudan, as part of a strategy to enhance its influence in the face of Addis Ababa.”
He adds, "Consolidating relations with Ethiopia's opponents is a way to improve Egypt's position in any future negotiations over control of the Nile, including with regard to any new dams that Ethiopia may intend to build on the river."
Taylor pointed out that Egypt "has its own agenda that is not necessarily linked to Ethiopia. For example, its support for the Sudanese army stems primarily from its historical relations with the Sudanese military establishment."
Horn of Africa...new alliances
Redrawing alliances is not limited to Cairo's movements, as relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have also witnessed an unprecedented escalation in recent days. Ethiopia accused Eritrea of committing acts of "hostility and violence" after it expelled ten Eritrean diplomats and closed its embassy in Asmara, while Eritrea responded that it would sever "all diplomatic relations."
Long-standing tensions between the two neighboring countries have reached a critical stage with renewed hostilities in northern Ethiopia, raising fears of a renewal of the devastating civil war that took place between 2020 and 2022 and claimed an estimated 600,000 lives.
Likewise, Ethiopia declared an Egyptian diplomat persona non grata and informed his country's embassy in Addis Ababa of the need for him to leave Ethiopian territory within 48 hours, without explaining the reasons for this step. In accordance with the principle of reciprocity, Egypt declared an Ethiopian diplomat in Cairo persona non grata and gave him 48 hours to leave the country.
In this regard, Gilles-Emmanuel Jacquet, a lecturer at the Geneva School of Diplomacy and International Relations, said that the existing crisis between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Renaissance Dam and the water shares that Egypt will receive has led to “the formation of new regional alliances.”
At the heart of these calculations stands out Eritrea, with its strategic location on the Red Sea and its proximity to Bab al-Mandab. Ethiopia, which enjoyed access to the coast for decades before Eritrea's secession, considers access to the sea an urgent matter of national security. On the other hand, Asmara says it fears that Addis Ababa will try to control Assab by force.
Observers fear that any potential confrontation between Ethiopia and Eritrea will not remain isolated from the rest of the region's conflicts, especially in light of the intertwining of regional interests and alliances.
Martin Plaut, a British journalist specializing in the Horn of Africa, warns of the dangers of these conflicts overlapping, saying: “You have the UAE, which supports the Rapid Support Forces, and you have Saudi Arabia, which supports the Eritreans and the Sudanese Armed Forces. All of this may multiply the risks, and one conflict may lead to another.”
Antonio Cascais contributed to the preparation of the report
