Study: Germany's population will decrease by about one and a half million by 2045

The results of the study “The Demographic Situation of the Country” presented by the Berlin Institute for Population and Development (Berlin-Institut für Bevölkerung und Entwicklung) revealed that just over two-thirds of administrative units are expected to record a decline in population. The population of about 200 areas that were still growing a few years ago is likely to decline. According to data from the Federal Statistical Office, the population of Germany in 2026 will be about 83.3 million people.

Growth in some major cities and decline in the countryside

The Berlin Institute, in cooperation with the Fustenrot Foundation, conducted the study. The German-wide evaluation system is based on 26 indicators in the fields of demography, economy, education, and social conditions. Katrina Hintz, director of the Berlin Institute for Population and Development, said the crucial question is not whether Germany is growing or shrinking, but rather where the growth or contraction is occurring.

Manuel Slobina of the Fustenrot Foundation said that the population decline in Germany as a whole would be moderate, but the differences between regions were significant. It is expected that many major cities will continue to grow in the future, while some rural areas may witness a clear decline in population.

Contrast between East and West Germany

The study indicates that the regions of eastern Germany vary more; Twelve districts and cities out of the 20 regions with the poorest overall rating are located in eastern Germany, compared to only 5 in 2019. According to the study, the positive trend that many regions of eastern Germany witnessed during the period from 2014 to 2024 will not continue in all regions, as the gap has become large today between the successful regions and those that are the weakest performers with regard to demographic, economic, educational, and social conditions indicators.

The study also shows that there are significant differences in western Germany. While the state of Saarland is expected to continue to lose part of its population, cities such as Frankfurt (the country's financial capital) and Dusseldorf are likely to witness continued population growth.