Is the ruling Likud party in trouble as the No. 1 party? Prime Minister Netanyahu's progress and retreat - Israeli general election to be held on the 27th

[Jerusalem Current Affairs] A general election will be held in Israel on the 27th. Opinion polls in the final stages of the campaign showed that Yashar, a centrist opposition party led by former military chief of staff Eisenkot, had the most support, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing Likud party likely to lose its position as the leading party.

Pros and cons of Prime Minister Netanyahu: Support is falling even in ruling party strongholds - Israeli general election

This is the first general election since the October 2023 cross-border attack on Israel by Hamas, an Islamic group based in the Palestinian autonomous region of Gaza. The main focus is on whether Netanyahu, who has served as prime minister for 19 years, the longest in office, will step down.

Mr. Netanyahu, who missed the signs of a surprise attack by Hamas, continued to shirk responsibility, leading to increased support for the opposition. On the 24th, a protest rally was held in Tel Aviv, a commercial capital, calling for the establishment of a national investigative commission to investigate the cause of the oversight, and when Eisenkot appeared, the crowd chanted, ``He's the next prime minister!''

The general election for the 120-member parliament will be held using a proportional representation system, with voters voting for political parties. Local media reported on the 23rd that Yashar leads Likud (20 seats) with 22.3 seats, based on the average predicted number of seats based on multiple opinion polls. Both parties are far from having a majority on their own, and a coalition with other parties is essential to form a government. The anti-Netanyahu bloc, including Yashar, won 54 seats, more than the Likud-led Netanyahu bloc (50 seats).

If neither side reaches a majority, post-election coalition efforts will be the difference between victory and defeat. At present, the ultra-Orthodox Jewish party in Netanyahu's camp is reportedly feuding with Netanyahu over the exemption from military draft for ultra-Orthodox citizens, and there is also information that the anti-Netanyahu camp is spying on developments behind the scenes.

On the other hand, Mr. Eisenkot is said to have a policy of not ruling out extra-cabinet cooperation with Arab parties that do not belong to either camp, but there is a strong feeling of rejection towards Arab parties within the anti-Netanyahu camp. There is a possibility that Mr. Netanyahu may try to take advantage of this difference in temperature to undermine the situation.

It is possible that both camps will fail in their efforts to form a coalition and be forced to hold new elections. Five elections were held in Israel from 2019 to 2022. In 2021, a coalition government was formed that included Arab parties for the first time since the country's founding in 1948, but it collapsed after about a year due to lack of consensus among all parties other than those opposed to Netanyahu.